The Dwight Howard Drama Thread, Today: wants to be traded Options

[madisonsmadhouse]

http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterockets/2012...e-worth-taking/

Getting Dwight Howard would be tough, keeping him tougher. A gamble worth taking?
Posted on June 26, 2012 at 8:00 am by Jonathan Feigen in General
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Magic center Dwight Howard is the franchise-type player the Rockets have long coveted. (John Raoux/Associated Press)

Maybe it would just be easier to be really lousy and lucky, after all.

The Rockets’ way, however, makes things much more interesting around the trade deadline, draft and free agency.

The Rockets’ search for a franchise star has grabbed the post Finals attention centered on their hopes to land Dwight Howard. This is nothing new, of course. They had been in talks with the Magic up to 11 a.m. on March 15 when Howard ended that by signing his opt in to remain with the Magic for another season. That was not about to end the chase.

The chatter heated up when ESPN.com reported that the Rockets have tried to pick up extra top 10 picks to put together a deal with the Magic that would send Howard to Houston. This is entirely true, but among many moves the Rockets are trying to work out by Thursday’s draft. Nothing is imminent and the talks are considered fragile at best.

Also, the Rockets are trying to move into the top 10 not just to swing a deal with the Magic, but to use the pick themselves, rather than two picks in the middle of the round.

None of this comes as a surprise to anyone. The Rockets have made no secret of their quest to land a franchise player. And they have tried to move up in every draft since Daryl Morey has been the general manager.

Things are, however, particularly intense this week. There has been interest in Kyle Lowry since he expressed his dissatisfaction with playing for Kevin McHale. The Rockets have shopped Kevin Martin. But everything is about finding that next star to be the foundation for their future, either with the deal to bring him to town or to better equip the Rockets for that kind of trade.

In some ways, it would be interesting if the Rockets dealt Lowry, Martin and perhaps an extra big man to Orlando for Howard and a pricey veteran or two. History does tend to repeat itself, and this would not be the first time they sent a starting backcourt and an extra big man to Orlando for a Magic star who also was a straight-from-high school player available because he was unwilling to commit beyond the next season while coming off a back injury. Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kevin Cato for Tracy McGrady happened. This could, too.

The Rockets do have what it would take to make this kind of deal. First, they are willing though they would be gambling that Howard would walk in a year. They were willing to gamble when Howard was signed only for a few weeks. They would jump at the chance to have him for a full season.

Second, they have a variety of contracts to offer, from Lowry’s modest contract to Martin’s expiring deal. They could offer productive players in rookie-scale contracts and multiple picks. They agreed to trade Martin, Goran Dragic, Luis Scola and a first-round pick to get Pau Gasol. You can imagine what they would have to send to Orlando to get Howard. And third, they have cap room if they need to take back an extra contract to make a deal work.

The competition would be greater now than in March when relatively few teams were willing to risk much with Howard signed for such a short time. And the Magic still would have reason to be patient to try a bit more to get Howard to stick around to play for a new GM and coach, or to try to land a replacement star rather than the Rockets’ offer of good, solid players that have been unable to break from the middle of the pack.

But if we assume the Magic would be willing, that the Rockets could land Howard, do you take the chance you can keep him? If you can get a pair of top 10 picks, do you just use the picks and try to find your star that way? In other words, do you feel lucky? Well, do you?

Eh, why not?

Undoubtedly, the chances of signing Howard long-term are not great. David Aldridge reported that a source told him there is no chance Howard would sign after next season. I was told in March, about 10 days after the deadline, that Howard wants a bigger stage than Houston offers. He can wait a season and head to Brooklyn and immediately be the greatest center the Nets have ever had (something he cannot be with the Rockets or Lakers.)

Howard, however, has set records for fickle decision-making. Given a year in Houston, he could change his mind. For that matter, in a year, he could change his mind 57 times. The Rockets with Howard could be capable of a pretty strong year, a better season than they would likely have without him, which could help convince him to stay or at least be fun while it lasts.

Basically, if they can get him, they have a chance to keep him. Put a percentage on it. Whatever you think it is. For argument sake, let’s say there’s a 25 percent chance he would stay. How does that chance compare to the chance of trading for a similar star with a long-term contract? How does it compare to tanking and hoping to win the lottery, and winning it the year you happen to have a player that dominant waiting for you?

The Rockets know how difficult it is to land a star, especially one with a long-term contract. Winning the lottery is far from a sure thing (think Charlotte) and going to the lottery every single guarantees little (Washington, Sacramento.)

If they can get Howard, the chances they can keep him are not great, but they are better than trying to get a player like that elsewhere.

Now, all they have to do is get him. Again.

[2nd_city_saint78...]

They couldn't offer Harden a max deal if they were still holding on to Butler, and they might not be able to anyway. Assume both Rose and Howard are close to $19 million, makes $38. If Butler would be $2 million, Teague another $1 million, puts them at about $41 million. If the cap stays at $58, then Harden cannot be offered. Have to trade away the kids too.

The only reason the Heat were able to do all 3 was...2 of their guys (Wade and Lebron) actually took less than the max deal.

I can see one of the SGs (Harden, Martin, or Ellis) taking less than a max deal if it means they get to play with Rose and Howard on what is def a championship caliber team.

[ZoomSlowik]

I can see one of the SGs (Harden, Martin, or Ellis) taking less than a max deal if it means they get to play with Rose and Howard on what is def a championship caliber team.

They would have to take significantly less. Look at the way the Knicks' roster is distributed right now, that's about the best you can hope for. You really don't have any room for anything else with two max and another guy over $10 mil.

[2nd_city_saint78...]

They would have to take significantly less. Look at the way the Knicks' roster is distributed right now, that's about the best you can hope for. You really don't have any room for anything else with two max and another guy over $10 mil.

You wouldn't need much more really, the second unit would have to rely on draft picks and vet minimums but with that starting unit I'd be fine with it. Trade Taj for a good pick next year (and future picks), maybe sign and trade ASik for a 1st rounder, and they have 2 picks next year. That would give you 4 picks next year.

Rose/Teague
Harden/
Butler
Mirotic/
Howard/

You can fill the roster with those picks, an MLE and a good vet who takes the minimum.

As you know I'm terrible at figuring out the cap so I'm probably still wrong....It's doubtful but maybe Dwight pulls a Lebron and takes less too??

[ZoomSlowik]

Mirotic alone would really hurt their cause. Check out the article Madhouse posted in the Mirotic thread. That also assumes he's here before 2015.

[Jake]

I don't think anyone wants to trade a 1st rounder for Omer, but I would have thought the same thing about Thabo

[2nd_city_saint78...]

If there are teams wanting to pay him 8 mill I think he may get you a first.

Say the Rockets offered him 8, would the sign and trade have to be Asik at 8mill? By that I mean can the Bulls sign him to say a 3 or 4 mill contract then trade him? That would up his value a lot.

[Jake]

If there are teams wanting to pay him 8 mill I think he may get you a first.

Say the Rockets offered him 8, would the sign and trade have to be Asik at 8mill? By that I mean can the Bulls sign him to say a 3 or 4 mill contract then trade him? That would up his value a lot.

Nope, have to give him what was offered

[Quinarvy]

PLayes association suggests Howard will have a grievance against the club, and may push to be declared a free agent and have his option overturned.

I hate him. So much.

[madisonsmadhouse]

I hate him. So much.

This. In the real world they call this "negotiations". By his standards, Howard must be guilty of blackmail and collusion, right?

[Balta1701-B]

This. In the real world they call this "negotiations". By his standards, Howard must be guilty of blackmail and collusion, right?

The one thing that makes him possibly have a case is that whole deal with Van Gundy knowing Howard demanded he be fired. You can come up with plenty of scenarios where that joke of a press conference was the place where some handshake deal was violated.

[madisonsmadhouse]

HoopsHype ‏@hoopshype
Rumors: Warriors fixed on Dwight Howard

[madisonsmadhouse]

The one thing that makes him possibly have a case is that whole deal with Van Gundy knowing Howard demanded he be fired. You can come up with plenty of scenarios where that joke of a press conference was the place where some handshake deal was violated.

Sure, like negotiations in bad faith by Howard?

[Balta1701-B]

Sure, like negotiations in bad faith by Howard?

Does he have a right to ask for a coach he's comfortable with, and does he have a right to expect that conversations about a coaching change would be private between him and the organization?

[madisonsmadhouse]

Chris Broussard ‏@Chris_Broussard
source says Golden State still willing to trade for Dwight Howard without having commitment from him beyond next season

[madisonsmadhouse]

Does he have a right to ask for a coach he's comfortable with, and does he have a right to expect that conversations about a coaching change would be private between him and the organization?

According to Howard, that would be blackmail.