2010 Strategy Options

[eddog2]

The Bulls should still be competitive this year assuming that Deng and everyone else remains healthy but we all know this is no championship team this year or next without some major additions. Boston (with KG back and with whoever they add in free agency, Orlando, and the Cavs are simply too strong) to win the title next year. We might be able to make it another competitive 7 games series in the playoffs or even win round 1 with the team we have but our focus this year should be on 2010.

Right now as it stands we'll be at roughly $46M next year going into free agency (if we have our 2 rookies signed) with the potential to trim that down to $37.53 if we decide to let Tyrus walk. Or we'll be at $46 + the difference of whatever Tyrus signs for this summer if both parties agree to an extension. Here are the options I think the Bulls should consider in order but the first 3 which I favor involve trading Kirk for an expiring contract and a backup PG while scenario 4 & 5 involve keeping Kirk. If we do that we are talking about being able to get 2 prime time free agents in 2010 not just 1.

1. Trade Kirk & Deng in a package for T-mac & a future 1st and try to sign Tyrus to an extension this summer. Offer him 5 years $42.5 million which is $8.5M per year but back load the contract so that his 2010 salary is only minimally higher than what he is already on the books for. Essentially give him $7 and have the contract go up from there. $8.5 in this market is pretty good for a guy that hasn't proven too much yet. I'm sure he'll be looking for $10M but he hasn't shown that type of productivity yet. Offer him the $42.5M and tell him that you plan to use the free agent money to get two big time free agents to form a championship team.

This scenrio works out wonderful in terms of the cap and is a win win scenario for the Bulls. Their overall salary will be at $23-25M when free agency comes around and they'll have enough money to sign 2 mega free agents (remember how that worked out last time). At best, the Bulls will have tons of cap room and will still be a better team b/c T-mac will be in a contract year and will be fully healthy and a lineup of Rose/T-Mac/Salmons/Tyrus/Noah will lead the Bulls deep into the playoffs. Or at worst, T-Mac will not play at all or will be injured for the season again and a lineup of Rose/?/Salmons/Tyrus/Rose & no backup PG will struggle to win in the improved East and the Bulls will have another lottery pick to add to their depth. One could argue that the worst case scenario is actually the best case scenario.

The Bulls would then have a chance to rectify for previous blunders. There will be no cheesy Benny the Bull greetings at the airport this time around. No "rebuilding team" talk. The talk all over the league will be about how nice the Bulls lineup looks and the ability to join two superstars with a budding superstar PG, Tyrus, Noah, & Salmons (if we decide to keep him), Johnson and possibly another high lottery pick plus Houston's first to really rebuild around Rose and start a championship run. We'll start by getting Wade to agree to come home and we'll tell Wade to recruit who he wants to play with. If he convinces Amare we get Amare. If he convinces Lebron we get Lebron. If he convinces Bosh we get Bosh. All without having to trade for any of them.

If we don't get Wade we push hard for two other guys on the list (some would say 2 more realistic options). Possibly Joe Johnson & a PF? Dirk Nowitzki? There are also several mid-level talents that would be upgrades. We could sign a Lebron or Wade and then add 2 other very good players instead of one other superstar. Anyway, the options will be plentiful and we'll have the PG, a big market, solid talent on our team to add and a boatload of money to entice free agents. Rudy Gay will also be a restricted free agent that year and we know that Memphis is one of the cheapest teams in the league so we'd probably be able to pry him away if we wanted him. We essentially could go into 2011 with this lineup in a best case scenario and still be right around the cap in terms of team salary. ($18M to Wade & Bosh in year 1, $8M Tyrus, $8M Salmons, $5.5M Rose, $3.1M Noah, $1.8M Johnson, $1M Asik, $1M Taj. We'd have roughly $4.6M+ to sign the rest of the roster). We'd then go over the cap in 2011 or 2012 to keep Noah & Rose but with that lineup we'd be winning titles and selling millions of jersey's so the Bulls would still be more profitable than they ever have been.

Noah/Asik
Bosh/Tyrus/Taj
Tyrus or Salmons/Johnson
Wade/Salmons
Rose/backup PG

2. Offer Tyrus a reasonable extension and hope he takes it. Trade Kirk for an expiring contract and a backup PG. Keep Deng, Tyrus, Noah & Rose as your future building blocks and hope that is enough to entice Wade or Lebron next year. You'll have enough to sign Lebron or Wade and possibly another mid-level free agent.

Noah/Asik
Tyrus
Deng/Salmons
Wade
Rose

We keep Deng & Salmons, add Wade to a playoff team, possibly add another mid-level free agent, stick with Tyrus and keep all of our future draft picks.

3. Trade Kirk (to save cap space) and Tyrus (b/c he's not in your plans or didn't sign the $42.5M extension), expiring contracts & future picks together or individually in a package for Bosh. In this scenario we'll still have enough to get Wade or Lebron next year but we won't have Tyrus as an asset still on our team. We still could end up with a lineup of

Noah/Asik
Bosh
Salmons
Wade
Rose

but we'd be minus TT & some picks plus the cap space to add any othe free agents.

4. Keep Kirk and trade Tyrus & some package of expirings for Bosh. Under this scenario we'd basically be committing to a Bosh and we'd remove any chances of getting Wade or Lebron. We would still probably have a little bit of cap space to sign a mid-level free agent. Bosh would make us better but without BG I don't think this makes us a title contender/favorite.

5. Keep Kirk and let the Tyrus contract situation drag into next summer. Tyrus has a monster year and then demands big time money just like BG. The Bulls are focused on adding big time free agents and some team offers Tyrus huge money. The Bulls decide to let Thomas walk thinking they can get Wade plus another free agent. Wade says no way when he looks at our lineup without Tyrus and with Kirk and decides to stay in Miami. We then end up overpaying for someone like Dirk Nowitzki or Bosh and that's all we get. Salmons also decides to walk

We go into 2010 with a lineup that still will likely make it out of the first round but that won't win a title (I know it looks good compared to what we have now but unless Deng develops into an all-star or Rose into a top 5 player this still isn't enough to win a title):

Noah
Nowitzki or Bosh/Johnson
Deng
Kirk
Rose

Which idea do you like best? Any other suggestions????

[Chicago Bulls Fr...]

I'm all for a Deng + whoever for T-Mac and say Kyle Lowry.. You get a better player when healthy in T-Mac and you have Salmons back at his usual position and Lowry who's a great guy to have as your back up. The thing is, the Rockets want a big man to replace Yao in any T-Mac deals..

[Balta1701-B]

I'm all for a Deng + whoever for T-Mac and say Kyle Lowry.. You get a better player when healthy in T-Mac and you have Salmons back at his usual position and Lowry who's a great guy to have as your back up. The thing is, the Rockets want a big man to replace Yao in any T-Mac deals..

We just drafted a bunch.

Frankly though, if you're trading for T-Mac, you just expect that you're getting the expiring contract. Any games he actually plays and contributes are just a bonus.

And honestly...now that we've lost Gordon...moving Hinrich or Deng for an expiring contract is no longer a necessity. It's a luxury. You move them both and you're in a position to make 2 max offers next offseason, which would be nice, but really, are we going to land both Bosh and Wade or something like that? With the other teams that have cap room I don't buy it.

Moving Hinrich or Deng was essential to resigning Gordon. It's not essential to having Cap Space next offseason; it's something that might be nice, but unless you can move them both for an expiring deal, it doesn't get us incredibly far.

[eddog2]

I'm all for a Deng + whoever for T-Mac and say Kyle Lowry.. You get a better player when healthy in T-Mac and you have Salmons back at his usual position and Lowry who's a great guy to have as your back up. The thing is, the Rockets want a big man to replace Yao in any T-Mac deals..

Not if they sign Gortat like they are planning on doing.

[SoxFan1]

If this was 5 years ago, I'd want T-Mac. And for Christ sakes John Salmons can play SG.

[eddog2]

If this was 5 years ago, I'd want T-Mac. And for Christ sakes John Salmons can play SG.

Salmons can play the SG but I think he's a better 3. His quickness not his range/jump shot is what limits him at SG. T-Mac would be more for the expiring contract than for the player but the player will probably be pretty damn good next year in a contract year.

[ZoomSlowik]

Tracy McGrady is just not a good player anymore, if he didn't shoot so much his numbers would be truly atrocious. The only thing he still does reasonably well is distribute the ball, and we don't really need him to do that with Rose on the roster. He didn't even shoot his usual low-40's percentage on 2-point jumpers last year. Plus what's he going to look like coming off a knee surgery?

I'd rather just try to get someone we actually plan on using, if he's just a rent-a-player for cap space things can go horribly wrong. Just look what happened to Detroit with Iverson, they royally screwed up their team and ended up spending 19 mil a year to get Gordon and Villanueva. Then we're fucked if some of these guys stay put, which is a decent bet since they can all make more money if they re-sign.

[Balta1701-B]

BTW, according to SI, TMac may be out until Feb. or later thanks to the microfracture surgery. He probably won't be all that when he comes back next season even if he does make it.

[GreatScott82]

The Bulls best scenario is the stand pat. With soo much salary coming off the books after this season, the Bulls could offer 2 max contracts next summer.

Here is your 2010 Bulls under contract:

SF Luol Deng: 11.3 million
G Kirk Hinrich: 9 million
G/F John Salmons: 5.8 million
PG Derek Rose: 5.5 million
PF Tyrus Thomas: 6.2 million
C Joakim Noah: 3.1 million
F Taj Gibson: 1.0 million
F James Johnson: 1.4 million

= $28.4 million

Bosh and Wade will both cost about 18-20 mill/ season, if the NBA salary cap increases, the Bulls could afford them both w/o dealing Hinrich this year.

My 2010 dream Bulls team:
PG Derek Rose
SG Dwayne Wade
SF Luol Deng
PF Chris Bosh
C Joakim Noah

Bench: Salmons, Hinrich, Ty Thomas, Gibson, Johnson, leage vet, rookie

[rockren]

The Bulls aren't trading for Bosh this off-season. They may have a chance to trade for him at the deadline...but my guess is Toronto is going to roll the dice and lose out big time and get nothing for Bosh when he bolts next year.

Can we stop the TMac deals? He's not coming to Chicago and John Salmons was dubbed BG's replacement when he came over in the Sacramento trade.

With the Blazers bringing in Turkaglu (not sure why they did), the Bulls should be trying to sell Hinrich to them right now with their embarrassment of riches at the 3 spot.

Hinrich for Webster and Blake. I believe Portland would do this as they love Hinrich. That deal would give us a more natural/cheaper backup PG and a 2G who is a lot like Salmons, but a much better shooter. The deal would also clear 4.2 million off of our 2010 payroll.

[Chicago Bulls Fr...]

Is anybody else worried about this 2010 strategy? Because I am. What if we don't land that big star? Are we going to be stuck in mediocrity for the next 10 years then? It's obvious that management has aimed the direction towards 2010 but there are no guarantees. I have a feeling Bosh will follow wherever Lebron goes or he'll sign in Miami. With us taking a step back this off-season he may just think were not good enough either.

[sport1016]

The Bulls best scenario is the stand pat. With soo much salary coming off the books after this season, the Bulls could offer 2 max contracts next summer.

Here is your 2010 Bulls under contract:

SF Luol Deng: 11.3 million
G Kirk Hinrich: 9 million
G/F John Salmons: 5.8 million
PG Derek Rose: 5.5 million
PF Tyrus Thomas: 6.2 million
C Joakim Noah: 3.1 million
F Taj Gibson: 1.0 million
F James Johnson: 1.4 million

= $28.4 million

Last time I checked 11.3+9+5.8+5.5+6.2+3.1+1+1.4 = 43.3 million NOT 28.4 million. We can offer one max contract.

And it's true, these guys all want to play together, but of Dwade and Bosh only one of them can either join Lebron in Cleveland or New York. And that doesn't even mention Amare. What if Boozer has a good year? He's in that class now too. He's at least not a bad 4th option for a little less $.

But besides lebron and each other, the #1 guy these guys are going to want to play with is Derrick Rose. Especially on an up and coming Bulls team in the East. Let's be serious, John Salmons is a 6'6' athletic wing player who shot almost 42% on threes last year. HE CAN PLAY SHOOTING GUARD. And Kirk was the starting two guard essentially for three decent playoff teams. HE'LL BE FINE AS A BACKUP SHOOTING GUARD. He also shoots a pretty good 3 ball. We lose BGs flare sure, but we are way better in defense, turnovers, matchup exploitation etc for 37 more minutes a game then we were last year. We won't need all those last minute heroics.

I'm not saying we're going to be awesome next year, but to lure ONE of bosh, wade or amare, we just have to outplay Toronto and Miami next season. We can do that. That's not gonna be that hard.

[Balta1701-B]

Is anybody else worried about this 2010 strategy? Because I am. What if we don't land that big star? Are we going to be stuck in mediocrity for the next 10 years then? It's obvious that management has aimed the direction towards 2010 but there are no guarantees. I have a feeling Bosh will follow wherever Lebron goes or he'll sign in Miami. With us taking a step back this off-season he may just think were not good enough either.

There are SO many people available in 2010 that we'll land someone. It's not just Bosh, Wade, and Lebron. It's Nowitzki, Kobe, Redd, Amare, Boozer, Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, possibly Josh Howard, Okur, Camby, Tyson Chandler, Al Harrington. The RFA's are the Tyrus Thomas year; so guys like Brandon Roy, Foye, Rondo, Rudy Gay, Tyrus Thomas are all guys that you can force the other team to match if they don't sigh this offseason.

If we miss out, someone better be fired. There's just too many people and there won't be enough teams with cap space. Especially if the economy continues to stagger through this NBA season and teams that could have cap space like the Grizz chose not to use much of it.

[GreatScott82]

Last time I checked 11.3+9+5.8+5.5+6.2+3.1+1+1.4 = 43.3 million NOT 28.4 million. We can offer one max contract.

And it's true, these guys all want to play together, but of Dwade and Bosh only one of them can either join Lebron in Cleveland or New York. And that doesn't even mention Amare. What if Boozer has a good year? He's in that class now too. He's at least not a bad 4th option for a little less $.

But besides lebron and each other, the #1 guy these guys are going to want to play with is Derrick Rose. Especially on an up and coming Bulls team in the East. Let's be serious, John Salmons is a 6'6' athletic wing player who shot almost 42% on threes last year. HE CAN PLAY SHOOTING GUARD. And Kirk was the starting two guard essentially for three decent playoff teams. HE'LL BE FINE AS A BACKUP SHOOTING GUARD. He also shoots a pretty good 3 ball. We lose BGs flare sure, but we are way better in defense, turnovers, matchup exploitation etc for 37 more minutes a game then we were last year. We won't need all those last minute heroics.

I'm not saying we're going to be awesome next year, but to lure ONE of bosh, wade or amare, we just have to outplay Toronto and Miami next season. We can do that. That's not gonna be that hard.

Damn, my math is totally off this summer haha. Since we do have room for one max contract, out of Bosh and Wade, I would go after Bosh. We need that big man who gives you that low post presence more than an aggressive guard. We already have that in Rose.

[Sanitarium]

How does Turkoglu to the Raptors change this?