2010 Strategy Options

[eddog2]

The Bulls should still be competitive this year assuming that Deng and everyone else remains healthy but we all know this is no championship team this year or next without some major additions. Boston (with KG back and with whoever they add in free agency, Orlando, and the Cavs are simply too strong) to win the title next year. We might be able to make it another competitive 7 games series in the playoffs or even win round 1 with the team we have but our focus this year should be on 2010.

Right now as it stands we'll be at roughly $46M next year going into free agency (if we have our 2 rookies signed) with the potential to trim that down to $37.53 if we decide to let Tyrus walk. Or we'll be at $46 + the difference of whatever Tyrus signs for this summer if both parties agree to an extension. Here are the options I think the Bulls should consider in order but the first 3 which I favor involve trading Kirk for an expiring contract and a backup PG while scenario 4 & 5 involve keeping Kirk. If we do that we are talking about being able to get 2 prime time free agents in 2010 not just 1.

1. Trade Kirk & Deng in a package for T-mac & a future 1st and try to sign Tyrus to an extension this summer. Offer him 5 years $42.5 million which is $8.5M per year but back load the contract so that his 2010 salary is only minimally higher than what he is already on the books for. Essentially give him $7 and have the contract go up from there. $8.5 in this market is pretty good for a guy that hasn't proven too much yet. I'm sure he'll be looking for $10M but he hasn't shown that type of productivity yet. Offer him the $42.5M and tell him that you plan to use the free agent money to get two big time free agents to form a championship team.

This scenrio works out wonderful in terms of the cap and is a win win scenario for the Bulls. Their overall salary will be at $23-25M when free agency comes around and they'll have enough money to sign 2 mega free agents (remember how that worked out last time). At best, the Bulls will have tons of cap room and will still be a better team b/c T-mac will be in a contract year and will be fully healthy and a lineup of Rose/T-Mac/Salmons/Tyrus/Noah will lead the Bulls deep into the playoffs. Or at worst, T-Mac will not play at all or will be injured for the season again and a lineup of Rose/?/Salmons/Tyrus/Rose & no backup PG will struggle to win in the improved East and the Bulls will have another lottery pick to add to their depth. One could argue that the worst case scenario is actually the best case scenario.

The Bulls would then have a chance to rectify for previous blunders. There will be no cheesy Benny the Bull greetings at the airport this time around. No "rebuilding team" talk. The talk all over the league will be about how nice the Bulls lineup looks and the ability to join two superstars with a budding superstar PG, Tyrus, Noah, & Salmons (if we decide to keep him), Johnson and possibly another high lottery pick plus Houston's first to really rebuild around Rose and start a championship run. We'll start by getting Wade to agree to come home and we'll tell Wade to recruit who he wants to play with. If he convinces Amare we get Amare. If he convinces Lebron we get Lebron. If he convinces Bosh we get Bosh. All without having to trade for any of them.

If we don't get Wade we push hard for two other guys on the list (some would say 2 more realistic options). Possibly Joe Johnson & a PF? Dirk Nowitzki? There are also several mid-level talents that would be upgrades. We could sign a Lebron or Wade and then add 2 other very good players instead of one other superstar. Anyway, the options will be plentiful and we'll have the PG, a big market, solid talent on our team to add and a boatload of money to entice free agents. Rudy Gay will also be a restricted free agent that year and we know that Memphis is one of the cheapest teams in the league so we'd probably be able to pry him away if we wanted him. We essentially could go into 2011 with this lineup in a best case scenario and still be right around the cap in terms of team salary. ($18M to Wade & Bosh in year 1, $8M Tyrus, $8M Salmons, $5.5M Rose, $3.1M Noah, $1.8M Johnson, $1M Asik, $1M Taj. We'd have roughly $4.6M+ to sign the rest of the roster). We'd then go over the cap in 2011 or 2012 to keep Noah & Rose but with that lineup we'd be winning titles and selling millions of jersey's so the Bulls would still be more profitable than they ever have been.

Noah/Asik
Bosh/Tyrus/Taj
Tyrus or Salmons/Johnson
Wade/Salmons
Rose/backup PG

2. Offer Tyrus a reasonable extension and hope he takes it. Trade Kirk for an expiring contract and a backup PG. Keep Deng, Tyrus, Noah & Rose as your future building blocks and hope that is enough to entice Wade or Lebron next year. You'll have enough to sign Lebron or Wade and possibly another mid-level free agent.

Noah/Asik
Tyrus
Deng/Salmons
Wade
Rose

We keep Deng & Salmons, add Wade to a playoff team, possibly add another mid-level free agent, stick with Tyrus and keep all of our future draft picks.

3. Trade Kirk (to save cap space) and Tyrus (b/c he's not in your plans or didn't sign the $42.5M extension), expiring contracts & future picks together or individually in a package for Bosh. In this scenario we'll still have enough to get Wade or Lebron next year but we won't have Tyrus as an asset still on our team. We still could end up with a lineup of

Noah/Asik
Bosh
Salmons
Wade
Rose

but we'd be minus TT & some picks plus the cap space to add any othe free agents.

4. Keep Kirk and trade Tyrus & some package of expirings for Bosh. Under this scenario we'd basically be committing to a Bosh and we'd remove any chances of getting Wade or Lebron. We would still probably have a little bit of cap space to sign a mid-level free agent. Bosh would make us better but without BG I don't think this makes us a title contender/favorite.

5. Keep Kirk and let the Tyrus contract situation drag into next summer. Tyrus has a monster year and then demands big time money just like BG. The Bulls are focused on adding big time free agents and some team offers Tyrus huge money. The Bulls decide to let Thomas walk thinking they can get Wade plus another free agent. Wade says no way when he looks at our lineup without Tyrus and with Kirk and decides to stay in Miami. We then end up overpaying for someone like Dirk Nowitzki or Bosh and that's all we get. Salmons also decides to walk

We go into 2010 with a lineup that still will likely make it out of the first round but that won't win a title (I know it looks good compared to what we have now but unless Deng develops into an all-star or Rose into a top 5 player this still isn't enough to win a title):

Noah
Nowitzki or Bosh/Johnson
Deng
Kirk
Rose

Which idea do you like best? Any other suggestions????

[GreatScott82]

The Bulls best scenario is the stand pat. With soo much salary coming off the books after this season, the Bulls could offer 2 max contracts next summer.

Here is your 2010 Bulls under contract:

SF Luol Deng: 11.3 million
G Kirk Hinrich: 9 million
G/F John Salmons: 5.8 million
PG Derek Rose: 5.5 million
PF Tyrus Thomas: 6.2 million
C Joakim Noah: 3.1 million
F Taj Gibson: 1.0 million
F James Johnson: 1.4 million

= $28.4 million

Bosh and Wade will both cost about 18-20 mill/ season, if the NBA salary cap increases, the Bulls could afford them both w/o dealing Hinrich this year.

My 2010 dream Bulls team:
PG Derek Rose
SG Dwayne Wade
SF Luol Deng
PF Chris Bosh
C Joakim Noah

Bench: Salmons, Hinrich, Ty Thomas, Gibson, Johnson, leage vet, rookie

[sport1016]

The Bulls best scenario is the stand pat. With soo much salary coming off the books after this season, the Bulls could offer 2 max contracts next summer.

Here is your 2010 Bulls under contract:

SF Luol Deng: 11.3 million
G Kirk Hinrich: 9 million
G/F John Salmons: 5.8 million
PG Derek Rose: 5.5 million
PF Tyrus Thomas: 6.2 million
C Joakim Noah: 3.1 million
F Taj Gibson: 1.0 million
F James Johnson: 1.4 million

= $28.4 million

Last time I checked 11.3+9+5.8+5.5+6.2+3.1+1+1.4 = 43.3 million NOT 28.4 million. We can offer one max contract.

And it's true, these guys all want to play together, but of Dwade and Bosh only one of them can either join Lebron in Cleveland or New York. And that doesn't even mention Amare. What if Boozer has a good year? He's in that class now too. He's at least not a bad 4th option for a little less $.

But besides lebron and each other, the #1 guy these guys are going to want to play with is Derrick Rose. Especially on an up and coming Bulls team in the East. Let's be serious, John Salmons is a 6'6' athletic wing player who shot almost 42% on threes last year. HE CAN PLAY SHOOTING GUARD. And Kirk was the starting two guard essentially for three decent playoff teams. HE'LL BE FINE AS A BACKUP SHOOTING GUARD. He also shoots a pretty good 3 ball. We lose BGs flare sure, but we are way better in defense, turnovers, matchup exploitation etc for 37 more minutes a game then we were last year. We won't need all those last minute heroics.

I'm not saying we're going to be awesome next year, but to lure ONE of bosh, wade or amare, we just have to outplay Toronto and Miami next season. We can do that. That's not gonna be that hard.