Early Look at 2009 Draft Options

[ZoomSlowik]

I know it doesn't look like the Bulls will be able to get most of these guys since they project to be in the late lottery, but then again I said the same thing last year and we all know how that went.

Anyways, my thoughts on some of the top draft prospects. I'm listing roughly in the order that I think they will go in the draft, not neccessarily who I think they best players are. I've seen virtually all of the college guys and at least watch highlights of the incoming freshmen, though a lot of it is also what I read.

This is widely considered to be a much weaker class than the last two at this point, which is scary because I wasn't totally over-whelmed with last year's group outside of a few players. Many of the fringe-lottery guys declared last season, and the high school and foreign classes aren't considered to be very deep. Guys like DeAndre Jordan and Anthony Randolph could have seriously boosted the strength of this class instead of going lower than their talent would suggest.


1) BJ Mullens, C, Ohio State

I'd be very surprised if Mullens doesn't go #1 when the draft rolls around, teams simply don't pass on big men with his upside and talent level. He'd have to seriously underperform at OSU to slide in the draft. He has the type of size and athleticism that makes scouts drool. He's over 7 feet tall, listed somewhere between 255 and 270 pounds, and can really get off the floor. He's an explosive leaper with good quickness and also has a pretty good touch around the basket. When he wants to he can totally take over games, I believe he put up 60 in consecutive games this year. The big questions with him have been consistent effort, especially on defense and on the glass. Thus far he appears to have the highest ceiling in the class by a fairly good margin, he just has to get there.


2) Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma

Griffin is the one elite prospect that stayed in school. He likely would have gone #3 in the past draft, possibly even ahead of Beasley depending on how much you trust the Heat's pre-draft hand wringing. While he's nowhere near as dominant, he does have everything the scouts look for in a big man. Many scouts have compared him to Carlos Boozer, though personally I tend to think he looks more like Al Horford (I haven't seen the same post-offense that Carlos showed at Duke). Depending on who you ask he's 6'9" or 6'10" with good length and above average quickness and leaping ability. Scouts also love his aggression and toughness. He tends to finish strong at the rim and doesn't take plays off as often as many other elite prospects. However, his offensive game still needs work. He doesn't really dominate in the post and gets most of his points on dunks and lay-ins. He can handle the ball better than many his size, but his driving has been limited. His shot can also use a lot of work, and he is a poor free throw shooter. There is also the added concern of some nagging knee injuries late last season, and at one point it was reported that he'd miss the rest of the year. I could see him slipping a bit as some of the younger prospects with higher ceilings emerge, but he still looks like a top-5 lock and a top-3 pick if the draft were held today.


3) Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain

There was quite a bit of buzz about Rubio after he helped lead Spain to the gold medal game with Calderon on the bench. Point guards are the hot position right now, and Rubio will likely benefit from that. Scouts have been raving about his basketball IQ, court vision and highlight-reel passes for a few years now. Think of him as the Spanish Steve Nash. He's only 17 and already looks like an elite PG. He also has very good size for the position at 6'4" and has been able to rack up points in the painted area. Some may talk about him as a potential #1 pick, but I really think his lack of impressive measureables will keep him from going quite that high. He doesn't really have explosive athleticism and some will question how effective he will be without elite quickness. He also hasn't shown a dependable outside shot, so teams may play off him a bit until he hurts him. However, with his length and intangibles at the PG position someone early in the draft will take him.

4) Demar DeRozan, SG, USC

On paper, DeRozan is a far more interesting prospect than the two players ahead of him. He's a big wing player with great length and eye-popping athleticism. He's very quick and is an explosive leaper. Think Vince Carter in his prime. He also has pretty good range on his jump-shot, though the jury is still out on how consistent it is (it was previously a weakness but has improved). However, the general consensus is that he needs a little more polish. his ball-handling is considered to be a bit suspect, and he hasn't really shown much of a mid-range game. Like many other young prospects, scouts are un-sure about his defensive commitment as well. With his measureables and a dominant season he could go very high in the draft, but considering that he doesn't play one of the premium positions he'll have a hard time going #1 over potentially elite options at PG and C (much like Durant and Beasley the last two years).

5) Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn

I'm putting him here because this seems to be the breaking point for proven talent at the moment, but he can really go just about anywhere in the draft. I've written about him twice before, so I won't go too in depth. The bottom line is on paper he's an amazing physical specimen, but he still hasn't really put it all together. If he puts it all together on the offensive side of the ball, he'll soar up the draft boards, if he continues to play under his physical talents he could drop like DeAndre Jordan last year if he declares.

6) Brandon Jennings, PG, Italian League

I really don't know what to do with Jennings to be honest. Had he qualified academically and enrolled at Arizona I may have put him #3 or #4, but it remains to be seen how playing in Europe instead will affect his stock. Scouts won't see him as often, his weaknesses are more likely to be exposed by professional players, and younger players often end up riding the pine a lot. He's an extremely talented prospect with great quickness, good leaping ability, a solid jumper and legit PG abilities. He's likely the most talented PG prospect in the draft. However, he's also not a finished product yet and can be very streaky. His decision making leaves something to be desired, he'll often try to make a spectacular play rather than take the easy points. That carries over on defense as well, he tries to go for the steal more than most coaches like. He also needs to bulk up significantly, as he's listed as having 165 pounds on his 6'2" frame. He's an exciting prospect, but his situation clouds the situation a bit.

7) Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, UCLA

Things get VERY murky right around this spot in the draft. I'm guessing that Holiday emerges though and may go even higher. Holiday is probably the most complete player in the incoming freshmen class and the NBA loves big point guard prospects. He has a lot in common with former Bruin Russell Westbrook. He's listed at 6'3", has a huge wingspan, and very good quickness. He'll likely be a defensive stopper from Day 1 and fill up the box score on the other end as well. Right now he seems to be a bit under the radar because he doesn't really posess one standout skill. He's a good but not great ball-handler, so at least for now he's considered more of a tweener, and his jumpshot isn't exactly lethal. However, once he shows his well-rounded skill set on the college level scouts will likely be fighting to get him in the mid lottery.

8) Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest

Aminu appears to be the total package at SF. He has great size at 6'9" with a 7'4" wingspan and good all-around athleticism. He can also drill mid-range jumpers with regularity and is a pretty good ball-handler for his size. From what I've seen (admittedly mostly highlight clips, didn't do much in the McDonald's All-American game) he seems to be a solid all-around player that doesn't really wow you in any one phase of the game, kind of like Luol Deng. He's clearly skilled, but doesn't seem to consistently dominate. He can stand to add a bit more range on his jumper as well. I definitely want to see him some more at Wake Forest, he looks like he has quite a bit of potential.

9) James Harden, SG, Arizona State

This ranking may end up being too low, it's hard to say. He has been dominant at Arizona State, but thus far he hasn't generated significant NBA buzz. He's a little undersized for the NBA (in the 6'4" range) and appears to be only a decent athlete. He could improve his stock immensely if he can show more ball-handling ability, but so far he's not a legit PG prospect. He is a lethal scorer with a very good jumper and solid strength for a wing player. He also generated a ton of steals on the defensive end. He was really the best guard in the Pac-10 last year over high lottery picks OJ Mayo and Jerryd Bayless. However, he just doesn't project to be as big a factor on the next level as those two. If he keeps playing this well and expands his game a bit he could be a mid-lottery prospect. If he keeps dominating he'll likely win over some scouts anyways.

10) Austin Daye, SF, Gonzaga

I personally don't think he's anywhere near the 10th best prospect right now, but I'm listing him here because scouts like his raw abilities and if he comes out someone will probably take him in the late lottery, if not earlier. Some see him as a potential Kevin Durant clone. He does have amazing length at 6'10" with long arms, and he can hit jumpers out to the 3-point line. However, he's VERY raw and has yet to really produce at a level equal to his draft buzz. He's woefully thin and can't really play inside yet. He gets blocks because of his length, but his finishing inside suffers heavily as well as his defense and rebounding. He's really quite inconsistent and will go long periods without making an impact. He'll need a good season to really be considered for the lottery IMO.


Others to watch (no real order since it'll change drastically)-

Earl Clark, SF, Louisville- Athletic SF that makes an impact in big-man stats. Could be a poor man's Josh Smith.

Jerome Jordan, C, Tulsa- modest production thus far, but is athletic 7-footer that supposedly destroyed Thabeet in workouts this summer.

Nick Calathes, PG, Florida- Productive 6'5" guard that runs the offense very well despite less than elite athleticism. Looks like a taller Kirk Hinrich.

Chase Budinger, SF, Arizona- Been on here since he hit campus. Great size, leaping and jumper, hasn't really dominated like he should.

Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina- A bit undersized, but jet-quick and productive. A lot like DJ Augustin.

Damion James, SF/PF, Texas- Good athlete with length, had a breakout year. If he can prove he's a SF he'll soar up the board.

Greg Monroe, PF, Georgetown- Former #1 in his class. Great athleticism/skill, disappointing play dropped his stock a bit.

Scotty Hopson, SG, Tennessee- Big wing player that dominated his HS peers. Needs to work on his jumper.

Tyreke Evans, SG, Memphis- Great size and driving ability, but will have to improve numerous things to reach lottery promise (jumper, shot-selection, decision-making, effort, general ball-hogging tendencies)

Devin Ebanks, SF, West Virginia- Very similar to Aminu.

[ZoomSlowik]

A few early thoughts...

-Blake Griffin is looking like a heavy favorite for #1 at the moment, he's virtually been the college version of Dwight Howard thus far (though for some reason he doesn't get a ton of blocks). He looks far better than when I saw him last year, his knee injury may have been a factor. He still doesn't seem to have a whole lot of post moves and hasn't shown an improved shot, but he's been a monster on the glass and finishes when he gets it in close. He regularly out muscles 2 or 3 players for a tough rebound/basket, and if by some miracle he gets enough space he's a good enough ball-handler to take it to the basket. The Carlos Boozer comparisons look far more apt given how he's played this year.

-Stephen Curry is also looking a lot more like a lottery pick now that he's starting to show some PG skills. Though he's still a scorer first, he's had 3 games with more than 8 assists already. I'm still not entirely sure that he can succeed in the NBA as a starter considering that he doesn't have elite athleticism or ideal height/length, but the production is undeniable. He's probably the best shooter in the country and is definitely the most explosive scorer. That said, there aren't very many successful shoot-first players in the 6-foot range in the NBA. He'll stay on the roster because of his jumper though, and he might just be the next exception to the rule.

- On the other side of the coin, BJ Mullens and Demar DeRozan are off to less than stellar starts. They both have all of the tools, but if they keep playing like this they'd fall like rocks if they came out. Mullens is only playing 16 minutes per game and isn't making much of an impact when he does play. It's looking like the effort concerns he had are pretty valid, since I just can't believe that a guy with his athleticism and skill set can't even get consistent minutes otherwise. DeRozan on the other hand is playing quite a bit, but not particularly well. He's struggled to score with any kind of consistency and is turning it over at a high rate. He also has yet to make a 3 in 6 games. It's still very early and they have plenty of time to break out, but thus far it looks like they'll probably be in next year's class.

-On the Bulls' front, Greg Monroe is probably our best bet at the tail end of the lottery. He's about 6'10" with good agility and solid ball-handling for a big man. He's at the top of the key fairly regularly in the Princeton offense and showed the ability to drive and score when he got some space as well as find the cutters to the basket. He also made several nice post moves for points when he got the opportunity. He looks a lot like a college version of Chris Bosh on the offensive end, though I haven't seen the same dependable jumper (most reports say he can hit them though, and he does have a nice stroke at the line). However, he needs some serious work at the other end. He's a bad defender and rebounder that seems to be out of position and/or tentative fairly often, though he will make some plays with his length. He'll also need to build lower body strength so he doesn't get shoved around in the post at the next level. All that said, you don't generally find mobile big men with scoring ability outside of the top-5, so I'd gladly take him if he's there around 10 like is currently projected. He's the kind of guy that can soar up the draft boards if he keeps improving and/or has a big game against another major prospect though, and with Georgetown being a top-10 caliber team he'll probably get some chances in the tourney. Cole Aldrich could be another option, though I'm not quite as thrilled with him. He has most of the same skills as Monroe and appears to be a better defender, he's also not as athletic. From what I've seen he looks more like Spencer Hawes (less skilled but not quite as unimpressive athletically), which isn't as exciting as a potential LaMarcus Aldridge/Chris Bosh style big man in Monroe.