Early Look at 2009 Draft Options

[ZoomSlowik]

I know it doesn't look like the Bulls will be able to get most of these guys since they project to be in the late lottery, but then again I said the same thing last year and we all know how that went.

Anyways, my thoughts on some of the top draft prospects. I'm listing roughly in the order that I think they will go in the draft, not neccessarily who I think they best players are. I've seen virtually all of the college guys and at least watch highlights of the incoming freshmen, though a lot of it is also what I read.

This is widely considered to be a much weaker class than the last two at this point, which is scary because I wasn't totally over-whelmed with last year's group outside of a few players. Many of the fringe-lottery guys declared last season, and the high school and foreign classes aren't considered to be very deep. Guys like DeAndre Jordan and Anthony Randolph could have seriously boosted the strength of this class instead of going lower than their talent would suggest.


1) BJ Mullens, C, Ohio State

I'd be very surprised if Mullens doesn't go #1 when the draft rolls around, teams simply don't pass on big men with his upside and talent level. He'd have to seriously underperform at OSU to slide in the draft. He has the type of size and athleticism that makes scouts drool. He's over 7 feet tall, listed somewhere between 255 and 270 pounds, and can really get off the floor. He's an explosive leaper with good quickness and also has a pretty good touch around the basket. When he wants to he can totally take over games, I believe he put up 60 in consecutive games this year. The big questions with him have been consistent effort, especially on defense and on the glass. Thus far he appears to have the highest ceiling in the class by a fairly good margin, he just has to get there.


2) Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma

Griffin is the one elite prospect that stayed in school. He likely would have gone #3 in the past draft, possibly even ahead of Beasley depending on how much you trust the Heat's pre-draft hand wringing. While he's nowhere near as dominant, he does have everything the scouts look for in a big man. Many scouts have compared him to Carlos Boozer, though personally I tend to think he looks more like Al Horford (I haven't seen the same post-offense that Carlos showed at Duke). Depending on who you ask he's 6'9" or 6'10" with good length and above average quickness and leaping ability. Scouts also love his aggression and toughness. He tends to finish strong at the rim and doesn't take plays off as often as many other elite prospects. However, his offensive game still needs work. He doesn't really dominate in the post and gets most of his points on dunks and lay-ins. He can handle the ball better than many his size, but his driving has been limited. His shot can also use a lot of work, and he is a poor free throw shooter. There is also the added concern of some nagging knee injuries late last season, and at one point it was reported that he'd miss the rest of the year. I could see him slipping a bit as some of the younger prospects with higher ceilings emerge, but he still looks like a top-5 lock and a top-3 pick if the draft were held today.


3) Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain

There was quite a bit of buzz about Rubio after he helped lead Spain to the gold medal game with Calderon on the bench. Point guards are the hot position right now, and Rubio will likely benefit from that. Scouts have been raving about his basketball IQ, court vision and highlight-reel passes for a few years now. Think of him as the Spanish Steve Nash. He's only 17 and already looks like an elite PG. He also has very good size for the position at 6'4" and has been able to rack up points in the painted area. Some may talk about him as a potential #1 pick, but I really think his lack of impressive measureables will keep him from going quite that high. He doesn't really have explosive athleticism and some will question how effective he will be without elite quickness. He also hasn't shown a dependable outside shot, so teams may play off him a bit until he hurts him. However, with his length and intangibles at the PG position someone early in the draft will take him.

4) Demar DeRozan, SG, USC

On paper, DeRozan is a far more interesting prospect than the two players ahead of him. He's a big wing player with great length and eye-popping athleticism. He's very quick and is an explosive leaper. Think Vince Carter in his prime. He also has pretty good range on his jump-shot, though the jury is still out on how consistent it is (it was previously a weakness but has improved). However, the general consensus is that he needs a little more polish. his ball-handling is considered to be a bit suspect, and he hasn't really shown much of a mid-range game. Like many other young prospects, scouts are un-sure about his defensive commitment as well. With his measureables and a dominant season he could go very high in the draft, but considering that he doesn't play one of the premium positions he'll have a hard time going #1 over potentially elite options at PG and C (much like Durant and Beasley the last two years).

5) Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn

I'm putting him here because this seems to be the breaking point for proven talent at the moment, but he can really go just about anywhere in the draft. I've written about him twice before, so I won't go too in depth. The bottom line is on paper he's an amazing physical specimen, but he still hasn't really put it all together. If he puts it all together on the offensive side of the ball, he'll soar up the draft boards, if he continues to play under his physical talents he could drop like DeAndre Jordan last year if he declares.

6) Brandon Jennings, PG, Italian League

I really don't know what to do with Jennings to be honest. Had he qualified academically and enrolled at Arizona I may have put him #3 or #4, but it remains to be seen how playing in Europe instead will affect his stock. Scouts won't see him as often, his weaknesses are more likely to be exposed by professional players, and younger players often end up riding the pine a lot. He's an extremely talented prospect with great quickness, good leaping ability, a solid jumper and legit PG abilities. He's likely the most talented PG prospect in the draft. However, he's also not a finished product yet and can be very streaky. His decision making leaves something to be desired, he'll often try to make a spectacular play rather than take the easy points. That carries over on defense as well, he tries to go for the steal more than most coaches like. He also needs to bulk up significantly, as he's listed as having 165 pounds on his 6'2" frame. He's an exciting prospect, but his situation clouds the situation a bit.

7) Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, UCLA

Things get VERY murky right around this spot in the draft. I'm guessing that Holiday emerges though and may go even higher. Holiday is probably the most complete player in the incoming freshmen class and the NBA loves big point guard prospects. He has a lot in common with former Bruin Russell Westbrook. He's listed at 6'3", has a huge wingspan, and very good quickness. He'll likely be a defensive stopper from Day 1 and fill up the box score on the other end as well. Right now he seems to be a bit under the radar because he doesn't really posess one standout skill. He's a good but not great ball-handler, so at least for now he's considered more of a tweener, and his jumpshot isn't exactly lethal. However, once he shows his well-rounded skill set on the college level scouts will likely be fighting to get him in the mid lottery.

8) Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest

Aminu appears to be the total package at SF. He has great size at 6'9" with a 7'4" wingspan and good all-around athleticism. He can also drill mid-range jumpers with regularity and is a pretty good ball-handler for his size. From what I've seen (admittedly mostly highlight clips, didn't do much in the McDonald's All-American game) he seems to be a solid all-around player that doesn't really wow you in any one phase of the game, kind of like Luol Deng. He's clearly skilled, but doesn't seem to consistently dominate. He can stand to add a bit more range on his jumper as well. I definitely want to see him some more at Wake Forest, he looks like he has quite a bit of potential.

9) James Harden, SG, Arizona State

This ranking may end up being too low, it's hard to say. He has been dominant at Arizona State, but thus far he hasn't generated significant NBA buzz. He's a little undersized for the NBA (in the 6'4" range) and appears to be only a decent athlete. He could improve his stock immensely if he can show more ball-handling ability, but so far he's not a legit PG prospect. He is a lethal scorer with a very good jumper and solid strength for a wing player. He also generated a ton of steals on the defensive end. He was really the best guard in the Pac-10 last year over high lottery picks OJ Mayo and Jerryd Bayless. However, he just doesn't project to be as big a factor on the next level as those two. If he keeps playing this well and expands his game a bit he could be a mid-lottery prospect. If he keeps dominating he'll likely win over some scouts anyways.

10) Austin Daye, SF, Gonzaga

I personally don't think he's anywhere near the 10th best prospect right now, but I'm listing him here because scouts like his raw abilities and if he comes out someone will probably take him in the late lottery, if not earlier. Some see him as a potential Kevin Durant clone. He does have amazing length at 6'10" with long arms, and he can hit jumpers out to the 3-point line. However, he's VERY raw and has yet to really produce at a level equal to his draft buzz. He's woefully thin and can't really play inside yet. He gets blocks because of his length, but his finishing inside suffers heavily as well as his defense and rebounding. He's really quite inconsistent and will go long periods without making an impact. He'll need a good season to really be considered for the lottery IMO.


Others to watch (no real order since it'll change drastically)-

Earl Clark, SF, Louisville- Athletic SF that makes an impact in big-man stats. Could be a poor man's Josh Smith.

Jerome Jordan, C, Tulsa- modest production thus far, but is athletic 7-footer that supposedly destroyed Thabeet in workouts this summer.

Nick Calathes, PG, Florida- Productive 6'5" guard that runs the offense very well despite less than elite athleticism. Looks like a taller Kirk Hinrich.

Chase Budinger, SF, Arizona- Been on here since he hit campus. Great size, leaping and jumper, hasn't really dominated like he should.

Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina- A bit undersized, but jet-quick and productive. A lot like DJ Augustin.

Damion James, SF/PF, Texas- Good athlete with length, had a breakout year. If he can prove he's a SF he'll soar up the board.

Greg Monroe, PF, Georgetown- Former #1 in his class. Great athleticism/skill, disappointing play dropped his stock a bit.

Scotty Hopson, SG, Tennessee- Big wing player that dominated his HS peers. Needs to work on his jumper.

Tyreke Evans, SG, Memphis- Great size and driving ability, but will have to improve numerous things to reach lottery promise (jumper, shot-selection, decision-making, effort, general ball-hogging tendencies)

Devin Ebanks, SF, West Virginia- Very similar to Aminu.

[ZoomSlowik]

What the hell, conference season is starting up, so let's re-do this a bit. I'm going with a slightly different format too. Keep in mind that when I say "best case" I really mean best case, so don't get too excited if guys in the second half of the top-10 have an All-Star listed in that category.

1) Blake Griffin, PF Oklahoma
Still at #1 and isn't likely to slip. Absolutely dominant scorer and rebounder this year.

Best case- Elton Brand/Carlos Boozer
Worst case- David Lee/Andris Biedrins


2) Ricky Rubio, PG Spain
Had a rough start to the year with a broken wrist, but he's by far the most polished PG in the draft. Great ball-handler and passer.

Best case- Steve Nash without the 3's (okay but not amazing shooter)
Worst case- TJ Ford/Raymond Felton


3) James Harden, SG Arizona State
He doesn't have the amazing athleticism most high lottery picks do and is a little short, but he has been absolutely dominant this year. He's surprisingly effective on the drive and has a lethal jumper.

Best case- Manu Ginobili
Worst case- James Posey (slightly better offense, weaker D)


4) Jordan Hill, PF Arizona

He's really come on strong after being a late-first round prospect before this year. He doesn't quite have ideal size/bulk, but he's shown a very polished post game and can hit the mid-range jumper.

Best case- Chris Bosh
Worst case- Hakim Warrick


5) Greg Monroe, PF Georgetown
Extremely versatile big man on offense that can play inside or outside (honestly looks a bit better outside). He's looked pretty suspect on defense though and can play a bit soft.

Best case- LaMarcus Aldridge/David West
Worst case- Drew Gooden


6) Hasheem Thabeet, C UCoon
He has amazing size and length and is a freakish athlete for his size. However, he's never really developed an offensive game and regularly struggles to produce anything but blocks against strong competition.

Best case- Dikembe Mutombo
Worst case- Desagana Diop


7) Earl Clark, SF Louisville
He's an extremely versatile player in college and has good athleticism, but may have a hard time being a difference maker in the pros. He doesn't really have the jumper to play outside or the size to play inside. He doesn't always produce to his talent level either.

Best case- a poor man's Josh Smith
Worst case- Julian Wright


8) Al-Farouq Aminu, SF Wake Forest
Thus far he's shown a solid but not spectacular all-around game. He has good size and athleticism but could use more polish on his jumper.

Best case- Luol Deng/Marvin Williams
Worst case- Jamario Moon


9) BJ Mullens, C Ohio State
He's a very hard guy to place because he has as high a ceiling as anyone in the draft (possibly even higher than Griffin's) but hasn't played heavy minutes or consistently produced yet. He has great size and athleticism and good touch around the basket, but is a suspect defender and rebounder and doesn't always seem to be playing hard. If I were him I'd stay at OSU another year, though some team would probably take a chance on him in the top-10 if he came out.

Best case- Amare Stoudemire (very slim chance the way things look right now)
Worst case- Darko Milicic with fewer blocks


10) DeMar DeRozan, SF USC
DeRozan is another difficult player to place because he has freakish athleticism but has generally struggled to produce. He's picked up his play a bit of late, but he's still a non-factor as a jump-shooter and generally hasn't shown the ability to handle the ball well enough to consistently drive.

Best case- Caron Butler/Rudy Gay with significant development
Worst case- Trevor Ariza





Other potential lottery picks-

Jrue Holiday, PG UCLA- He has excellent length and is a good athlete with a well-rounded skill set. However, he isn't really a standout performer just yet. He's also still more of a combo guard and has a suspect jumper.

Comparable to- Russell Westbrook (not quite as explosive)


Gani Lawal, PF Georgia Tech- He's struggled a bit after a great start. He has good athleticism and can score inside, but he needs to work on his consistency and basketball IQ. He also may be a bit small to play inside against real post players.

Comparable to- Brandan Wright


Stephen Curry, PG/SG Davidson- No one can deny his college production, but it still sounds like few see him as a credible starter in the NBA because of his size and less than stellar athleticism. He'll probably stick because of his jumper though, and someone will give him a shot at PG.

Comparable to- Steven Blake (tough call, few with his athletic profile are successful in the NBA)


Brandon Jennings, PG Italy- He has significant talent, but has struggled in Europe. He hasn't shot well and he's turning it over a lot. It'll be interesting to see what happens to him at the end of the year.

Comparable to- Sebatastian Telfair right now (though he appears to be more athletic)


Cole Aldrich, C Kansas- He doesn't have the greatest athleticism, but he has great size/length and has been highly productive at Kansas. probably a late lottery pick.

Comparable to- Kevin Love, but with Spencer Hawes' build (doesn't have as much range as Hawes)


Austin Daye, SF/PF Gonzaga- He has excellent length, good athleticism and he can shoot. However, he hasn't consistently produced yet and is a bit of a tweener.

Comparable to- Andrea Bargnani