The Dwight Howard Drama Thread, Today: wants to be traded Options

[madisonsmadhouse]

http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterockets/2012...e-worth-taking/

Getting Dwight Howard would be tough, keeping him tougher. A gamble worth taking?
Posted on June 26, 2012 at 8:00 am by Jonathan Feigen in General
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Magic center Dwight Howard is the franchise-type player the Rockets have long coveted. (John Raoux/Associated Press)

Maybe it would just be easier to be really lousy and lucky, after all.

The Rockets’ way, however, makes things much more interesting around the trade deadline, draft and free agency.

The Rockets’ search for a franchise star has grabbed the post Finals attention centered on their hopes to land Dwight Howard. This is nothing new, of course. They had been in talks with the Magic up to 11 a.m. on March 15 when Howard ended that by signing his opt in to remain with the Magic for another season. That was not about to end the chase.

The chatter heated up when ESPN.com reported that the Rockets have tried to pick up extra top 10 picks to put together a deal with the Magic that would send Howard to Houston. This is entirely true, but among many moves the Rockets are trying to work out by Thursday’s draft. Nothing is imminent and the talks are considered fragile at best.

Also, the Rockets are trying to move into the top 10 not just to swing a deal with the Magic, but to use the pick themselves, rather than two picks in the middle of the round.

None of this comes as a surprise to anyone. The Rockets have made no secret of their quest to land a franchise player. And they have tried to move up in every draft since Daryl Morey has been the general manager.

Things are, however, particularly intense this week. There has been interest in Kyle Lowry since he expressed his dissatisfaction with playing for Kevin McHale. The Rockets have shopped Kevin Martin. But everything is about finding that next star to be the foundation for their future, either with the deal to bring him to town or to better equip the Rockets for that kind of trade.

In some ways, it would be interesting if the Rockets dealt Lowry, Martin and perhaps an extra big man to Orlando for Howard and a pricey veteran or two. History does tend to repeat itself, and this would not be the first time they sent a starting backcourt and an extra big man to Orlando for a Magic star who also was a straight-from-high school player available because he was unwilling to commit beyond the next season while coming off a back injury. Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kevin Cato for Tracy McGrady happened. This could, too.

The Rockets do have what it would take to make this kind of deal. First, they are willing though they would be gambling that Howard would walk in a year. They were willing to gamble when Howard was signed only for a few weeks. They would jump at the chance to have him for a full season.

Second, they have a variety of contracts to offer, from Lowry’s modest contract to Martin’s expiring deal. They could offer productive players in rookie-scale contracts and multiple picks. They agreed to trade Martin, Goran Dragic, Luis Scola and a first-round pick to get Pau Gasol. You can imagine what they would have to send to Orlando to get Howard. And third, they have cap room if they need to take back an extra contract to make a deal work.

The competition would be greater now than in March when relatively few teams were willing to risk much with Howard signed for such a short time. And the Magic still would have reason to be patient to try a bit more to get Howard to stick around to play for a new GM and coach, or to try to land a replacement star rather than the Rockets’ offer of good, solid players that have been unable to break from the middle of the pack.

But if we assume the Magic would be willing, that the Rockets could land Howard, do you take the chance you can keep him? If you can get a pair of top 10 picks, do you just use the picks and try to find your star that way? In other words, do you feel lucky? Well, do you?

Eh, why not?

Undoubtedly, the chances of signing Howard long-term are not great. David Aldridge reported that a source told him there is no chance Howard would sign after next season. I was told in March, about 10 days after the deadline, that Howard wants a bigger stage than Houston offers. He can wait a season and head to Brooklyn and immediately be the greatest center the Nets have ever had (something he cannot be with the Rockets or Lakers.)

Howard, however, has set records for fickle decision-making. Given a year in Houston, he could change his mind. For that matter, in a year, he could change his mind 57 times. The Rockets with Howard could be capable of a pretty strong year, a better season than they would likely have without him, which could help convince him to stay or at least be fun while it lasts.

Basically, if they can get him, they have a chance to keep him. Put a percentage on it. Whatever you think it is. For argument sake, let’s say there’s a 25 percent chance he would stay. How does that chance compare to the chance of trading for a similar star with a long-term contract? How does it compare to tanking and hoping to win the lottery, and winning it the year you happen to have a player that dominant waiting for you?

The Rockets know how difficult it is to land a star, especially one with a long-term contract. Winning the lottery is far from a sure thing (think Charlotte) and going to the lottery every single guarantees little (Washington, Sacramento.)

If they can get Howard, the chances they can keep him are not great, but they are better than trying to get a player like that elsewhere.

Now, all they have to do is get him. Again.

[ZoomSlowik]

He said something along the lines of, I'm gonna see how comfortable I am in LA then decide between LA and Brooklyn. IMO thats something a player in a new city should never bring up, and would annoy the hell out of me if I was an LA fan/he came to the Bulls.

Furthermore hasn't he made it fairly clear Chicago is not a place he wants to play long term, so chances are he'd be here the one year our other superstar is hurt....Whats the point??

Ok clearing $$$ might be a valid point, but getting rid of Noah is really gonna hurt the team IMO. I'd much rather keep Noah, trade Deng, amnesty Boozer, and sign a SG next year than lose Noah(plus whatever other pieces) and Howard, and be left with Rose, Boozer, and Deng....

I'd really hate to lose Noah for what would basically be cap relief, esp. considering he's working with Kareem this offseason and I'd hate to see any kind of progression he has in a different uni.

Brooklyn has no cap space. The only way he could go to the Nets is if the Lakers sign-and-trade him there, which has about as much of a chance of happening as me spending the night with Kate Upton.

Pretty much any attractive location this off-season is going to be capped out.

And you have way too much faith in a guy working out this off-season. Noah is hardly the only guy trying to get better.

[2nd_city_saint78...]

Brooklyn has no cap space. The only way he could go to the Nets is if the Lakers sign-and-trade him there, which has about as much of a chance of happening as me spending the night with Kate Upton.

Pretty much any attractive location this off-season is going to be capped out.

And you have way too much faith in a guy working out this off-season. Noah is hardly the only guy trying to get better.

Once again, like the Rus/Love thread, I'm going off what the player said.

How many of those players are working with one of the GOATs??

Yes, I have a lot of faith in Noah improving his game. He may not be Dwight Howard good but I think he can be Andrew Bynum good...Top 3 C in the NBA....I'm predicting at least 15/10 next year.

[ZoomSlowik]

Once again, like the Rus/Love thread, I'm going off what the player said.

How many of those players are working with one of the GOATs??

Yes, I have a lot of faith in Noah improving his game. He may not be Dwight Howard good but I think he can be Andrew Bynum good...Top 3 C in the NBA....I'm predicting at least 15/10 next year.

He said he wouldn't sign an extension, which makes financial sense because of the stupid CBA rules that give them a disincentive to do so. Much like Deron Williams, that doesn't mean he's leaving.

Pretty much all of these guys work out with someone that knows what they're doing at some point in their career.

You probably shouldn't expect a guy that has been in the league for years and still has a jumper that spins sideways to suddenly develop a good offensive game.

[2nd_city_saint78...]

He said he wouldn't sign an extension, which makes financial sense because of the stupid CBA rules that give them a disincentive to do so. Much like Deron Williams, that doesn't mean he's leaving.

Pretty much all of these guys work out with someone that knows what they're doing at some point in their career.

You probably shouldn't expect a guy that has been in the league for years and still has a jumper that spins sideways to suddenly develop a good offensive game.

Well when one of the true GOATs say he has the ability to be a monster if he got a chance to work with him, I'm gonna expect at least some kind of boost in his offensive game until proven otherwise.

Apparently hes doing yoga now too, not sure how that'd translate to playin ball but I'm sure it won't hurt.

[Balta1701-B]

He said something along the lines of, I'm gonna see how comfortable I am in LA then decide between LA and Brooklyn. IMO thats something a player in a new city should never bring up, and would annoy the hell out of me if I was an LA fan/he came to the Bulls.

Brooklyn really has virtually no way to genuinely be a threat to sign him now, and in order to trade for him, the Lakers would have to take back $20 million worth of contracts. The Nets will only have 1 big deal that expires after 2013-2014, and that's Kris Humprhies at $12 million, so the Lakers would need to actually want to take on someone like Lopez or Gerald Wallace long term...or find someone else to take on those deals without any enticement.

He can say how much he wants to go to Brooklyn all he wants. After they extended Lopez it became virtually impossible.

[2nd_city_saint78...]

Brooklyn really has virtually no way to genuinely be a threat to sign him now, and in order to trade for him, the Lakers would have to take back $20 million worth of contracts. The Nets will only have 1 big deal that expires after 2013-2014, and that's Kris Humprhies at $12 million, so the Lakers would need to actually want to take on someone like Lopez or Gerald Wallace long term...or find someone else to take on those deals without any enticement.

He can say how much he wants to go to Brooklyn all he wants. After they extended Lopez it became virtually impossible.

If Brook Lopez returns to form it wouldn't be a bad return. Unless OKC doesn't resign Ibaka, there are no good Cs on the market so I'd take Lopez over no C at all. I guess the same could be said in the Bulls situation should they have got D12.

Noah >>> Lopez

[ZoomSlowik]

If Brook Lopez returns to form it wouldn't be a bad return. Unless OKC doesn't resign Ibaka, there are no good Cs on the market so I'd take Lopez over no C at all. I guess the same could be said in the Bulls situation should they have got D12.

Noah >>> Lopez

The Lakers aren't dumb. They know the Nets aren't a threat to get Dwight unless they do Brooklyn a huge favor. They know that they're in a good situation because Dwight would have to sacrifice more money and more years and leave an organization with championship potential in a warm climate and a major market.

Is he really going to do that to play for the Rockets or Hawks? The odds are clearly in LA's favor. Brooklyn and Dallas were the other teams on his list, and neither of them are going to have the space to sign him out-right (well, Brooklyn clearly not, Dallas likely not once the numbers come in for their new additions). They're not going to give that up to take Brook Lopez's awful contract. If they were really worried about it, they'd have kept Andrew Bynum, who was arguably the 2nd best center in the league last year.

[ZoomSlowik]

Well when one of the true GOATs say he has the ability to be a monster if he got a chance to work with him, I'm gonna expect at least some kind of boost in his offensive game until proven otherwise.

Apparently hes doing yoga now too, not sure how that'd translate to playin ball but I'm sure it won't hurt.

And Michael Jordan thought taking Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay was a good idea. Being an elite player doesn't necessarily mean you can coach or evaluate talent.

I'd temper your expectations.

[2nd_city_saint78...]

And Michael Jordan thought taking Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay was a good idea. Being an elite player doesn't necessarily mean you can coach or evaluate talent.

I'd temper your expectations.

Did MJ work with him or is this just based on the fact that he picked the guy?

Evaluating a guy out of college, esp. a smaller school like Gonzaga is a lot harder than evaluating a guy who has been in the league for several years.

15/10 isn't a lofty expectation to have, thats what 2 more FGs a game....I mean I'm not expecting him to be the 2nd coming of Kareem or anything, I just believe he'll be better.