Getting Dwight Howard would be tough, keeping him tougher. A gamble worth taking?
Posted on June 26, 2012 at 8:00 am by Jonathan Feigen in General
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Magic center Dwight Howard is the franchise-type player the Rockets have long coveted. (John Raoux/Associated Press)

Maybe it would just be easier to be really lousy and lucky, after all.

The Rockets’ way, however, makes things much more interesting around the trade deadline, draft and free agency.

The Rockets’ search for a franchise star has grabbed the post Finals attention centered on their hopes to land Dwight Howard. This is nothing new, of course. They had been in talks with the Magic up to 11 a.m. on March 15 when Howard ended that by signing his opt in to remain with the Magic for another season. That was not about to end the chase.

The chatter heated up when ESPN.com reported that the Rockets have tried to pick up extra top 10 picks to put together a deal with the Magic that would send Howard to Houston. This is entirely true, but among many moves the Rockets are trying to work out by Thursday’s draft. Nothing is imminent and the talks are considered fragile at best.

Also, the Rockets are trying to move into the top 10 not just to swing a deal with the Magic, but to use the pick themselves, rather than two picks in the middle of the round.

None of this comes as a surprise to anyone. The Rockets have made no secret of their quest to land a franchise player. And they have tried to move up in every draft since Daryl Morey has been the general manager.

Things are, however, particularly intense this week. There has been interest in Kyle Lowry since he expressed his dissatisfaction with playing for Kevin McHale. The Rockets have shopped Kevin Martin. But everything is about finding that next star to be the foundation for their future, either with the deal to bring him to town or to better equip the Rockets for that kind of trade.

In some ways, it would be interesting if the Rockets dealt Lowry, Martin and perhaps an extra big man to Orlando for Howard and a pricey veteran or two. History does tend to repeat itself, and this would not be the first time they sent a starting backcourt and an extra big man to Orlando for a Magic star who also was a straight-from-high school player available because he was unwilling to commit beyond the next season while coming off a back injury. Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley and Kevin Cato for Tracy McGrady happened. This could, too.

The Rockets do have what it would take to make this kind of deal. First, they are willing though they would be gambling that Howard would walk in a year. They were willing to gamble when Howard was signed only for a few weeks. They would jump at the chance to have him for a full season.

Second, they have a variety of contracts to offer, from Lowry’s modest contract to Martin’s expiring deal. They could offer productive players in rookie-scale contracts and multiple picks. They agreed to trade Martin, Goran Dragic, Luis Scola and a first-round pick to get Pau Gasol. You can imagine what they would have to send to Orlando to get Howard. And third, they have cap room if they need to take back an extra contract to make a deal work.

The competition would be greater now than in March when relatively few teams were willing to risk much with Howard signed for such a short time. And the Magic still would have reason to be patient to try a bit more to get Howard to stick around to play for a new GM and coach, or to try to land a replacement star rather than the Rockets’ offer of good, solid players that have been unable to break from the middle of the pack.

But if we assume the Magic would be willing, that the Rockets could land Howard, do you take the chance you can keep him? If you can get a pair of top 10 picks, do you just use the picks and try to find your star that way? In other words, do you feel lucky? Well, do you?

Eh, why not?

Undoubtedly, the chances of signing Howard long-term are not great. David Aldridge reported that a source told him there is no chance Howard would sign after next season. I was told in March, about 10 days after the deadline, that Howard wants a bigger stage than Houston offers. He can wait a season and head to Brooklyn and immediately be the greatest center the Nets have ever had (something he cannot be with the Rockets or Lakers.)

Howard, however, has set records for fickle decision-making. Given a year in Houston, he could change his mind. For that matter, in a year, he could change his mind 57 times. The Rockets with Howard could be capable of a pretty strong year, a better season than they would likely have without him, which could help convince him to stay or at least be fun while it lasts.

Basically, if they can get him, they have a chance to keep him. Put a percentage on it. Whatever you think it is. For argument sake, let’s say there’s a 25 percent chance he would stay. How does that chance compare to the chance of trading for a similar star with a long-term contract? How does it compare to tanking and hoping to win the lottery, and winning it the year you happen to have a player that dominant waiting for you?

The Rockets know how difficult it is to land a star, especially one with a long-term contract. Winning the lottery is far from a sure thing (think Charlotte) and going to the lottery every single guarantees little (Washington, Sacramento.)

If they can get Howard, the chances they can keep him are not great, but they are better than trying to get a player like that elsewhere.

Now, all they have to do is get him. Again.

Report: Dwight Howard to Lakers being ‘discussed’ as part of three-team trade

The Magic, Lakers and Cavaliers are discussing a three-team trade that could send Dwight Howard to Los Angeles. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

So much for the Orlando Magic focusing on their coaching search. Dwight Howard-to-the-Lakers rumors are heating up again.

The Lakers, Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers are discussing a three-team trade that would send Howard to Los Angeles and center Andrew Bynum to Cleveland, Hoopsworld’s Alex Kennedy reported Saturday. From Kennedy’s report:

The three teams have discussed a number of scenarios. While no trade is imminent, the talks are ongoing.

One scenario would send Howard to Los Angeles, Andrew Bynum to Cleveland and a package of picks and prospects to Orlando, according to sources.

The Lakers would land Howard, who they have been aggressively pursuing for quite some time.

The latest Howard-to-the-Lakers rumors involved a three-team trade among the Lakers, Magic and Houston Rockets, who have also been trying to land Howard.

But the latest rumor could be an attractive option for all teams involved, if they can make it work. The Lakers would get Howard, who they have coveted since last offseason. The Cavaliers would get Bynum, a young big man who they could pair with point guard Kyrie Irving and draft pick Dion Waiters. Bynum would also reportedly be willing to sign an extension with the Cavaliers if traded there.

The Magic, meanwhile, would get young talent, draft picks and cap space in what’s becoming a rebuilding process. The Rockets have also been involved in talks for Howard recently, but they are reportedly not close to a deal with the Magic.

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Reports: Howard willing to re-sign with Lakers if traded to L.A.

By Matt Moore | Senior NBA Blogger
July 19, 2012 9:06 am ET

Dwight Howard has reportedly given indicated he's willing to re-sign in L.A.. (Getty Images)

Consider this the first step in building a Dwight Howard trade that doesn't involve Brookyn. It lays the foundation.

RealGM.com's Jarrod Rudolph, known to be very close to Howard and his camp and is considered a reliable source on that end, reports that Howard has come around to the Los Angeles Lakers as a destination and is willing to re-sign with the Lakers in free agency in the summer of 2013.

ESPN is confirming the report.

To put this in perspective, here's how any trade setup has to be configured, factoring Howard's impending free agency next summer:

1. Howard has to verbally commit to re-signing with the trade partner. No team (as of yet) will surrender the trade assets that the Magic want without Howard's consent that he'll stay long-term.

2. The Magic have to get the kind of package they want, which may involve bringing in a third team. Reports surfaced Wednesday that the Lakers had brought the Cavaliers into talks, involving Bynum headed to Cleveland while Anderson Varejao and a package of assets heads to Orlando.

3. The team getting Howard has to consent to the package they'll have to surrender for Howard. This is a bigger deal than it seems. Even with Howard the potential payoff, teams are reluctant to ever overpay for an asset. Unless they're the Knicks. And it's not Jeremy Lin, apparently. Part of this process with the Lakers involves Andrew Bynum, who has to agree to re-sign with wherever he lands. Reports have indicated Bynum is open to re-signing in both Cleveland and Houston, potential trade partners for the Lakers.

4. Howard has to not change his mind about the entire thing before the trade is approved by the league. That's pretty much touch-and-go till the league office sends down the OK at this point.

So the first step to complete a potential Howard trade has reportedly been accomplished, but there's a long way to go. Houston has also been in talks as the third team. Orlando has to set the price on Howard and determine what they want, and from there it will be on Magic GM Rob Hennigan to make that happen. As of yet, the Magic have not committed to what exactly they are looking for, but the package will presumably involve young players, draft picks, and most importantly, for teams to take salary from Orlando.

The big road block there is tha Orlando wants to dump Hedo Turkoglu's near-undumpable contract. That remains the next big hurddle in any negotiations.

But Howard agreeing to re-sign removes the risk from the Lakers, at least in terms of Howard's word. He could always not re-sign after committing to do so, but that would be a pretty terrible decision from every perspective.

So we wait to see if Howard's position holds, and if the Lakers can find the salary room for what the Magic want to get rid of, as well as the assets to send back to Orlando.

But for a team that seemed destined to send Howard to Brooklyn for one of the worst trade packages in NBA history, the Magic may just pull off getting a true rebuild set for themselves and the Lakers may get the next great superstar in their storied history.

The Dwightmare isn't over for the Orlando Magic.

Dwight Howard, through agent Dan Fegan, has thrown a wrench into gears of the humming trade machine yet again. This time, Howard's agent told ESPN that talk of Howard being open to a five-year maximum extension -- or any addition to his current deal, which expires at the end of the upcoming 2012-13 season -- was not accurate.

Fegan said Howard "fully intends to explore free agency at the end of next season, regardless of what team trades for him, including Brooklyn."

The Nets are holding out hope of acquiring Bryant but can't trade their most attractive chips until December. General manager Billy King told the NY Daily News the team still has interest and wouldn't yield even if Howard opts not to commit to a new contract with the Nets. At least in the short term, the Nets aren't in the bidding.

The Lakers aren't quite so gung-ho. According to multiple reports, general manager Mitch Kupchak is unlikely to part with 24-year-old center Andrew Bynum for a one-year rental of Howard.

Minus agreement toward at least a short-term extension, the Lakers have pause in pulling off the proposed three-team deal that would also include a third team with more draft assets than Los Angeles can offer the Magic.

I don't know how hard I'd push for that trade when you have no idea what you have in Derrick. Will he play the 1 year you may see little of Rose? What if Rose sucks now for some reason?

No thanks, he wants to play in Brooklyn. Rather just hold onto Noah+ and see what working with Kareem is gonna do for him.

He's not going to be in Brooklyn.