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> 09/10 NBA Predictions
ZoomSlowik
post Aug 11 2009, 02:48 PM
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QUOTE (Sanitarium @ Aug 11 2009, 03:22 PM) *
I don't think it's impossible for the division to go

Cavs
Bulls
Bucks
Pistons
Pacers

Detroit is just a mess right now. I wanted to say a big mess, but they are too undersized to even say that lol


I still think it'd be hard for them to be worse than Milwaukee, especially if Redd and/or Bogut gets hurt again. Everyone else on that roster (outside of Sessions who hasn't signed yet) is unproven and/or bad thanks to all of their cost-cutting.
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eddog2
post Aug 11 2009, 05:26 PM
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Zoom, I agree with you about Charlie V. I've never really been a fan of his. I wouldn't be shocked if they went with a Wallace/Wilcox starting frontcourt after the first couple of weeks of the season. That frontcourt would for sure be better defensively and it would allow Charlie V. to be a spark off the bench which is basically what he did for half the season last year. Wilcox is quick enough and is a decent enough post player to have some success at the 4. And him and Wallace should be able to do an adequate job on the boards.

Anyway, I don't think they are as disfunctional as you or everyone wants to claim they are. They have talented players throughout the lineup. Defensively they have Prince/Hamilton/& Wallace who are all above average defenders. And are a more well rounded scoring team than we are. Wilcox is a better post scorer than anyone on our team. BG was our best shooter. Prince and Hamilton both score in different ways. I'd say that Prince is also a better man to man defender than anyone on our team. What they are really missing is a true PG and maybe one more big (though I don't think Boozer is that big). But even without those parts I think they will have a respectable year and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished anywhere from 5-8 in the East. BG will prove his worth in Detroit.

Wallace/Brown
Wilcox/Charlie V.
Prince
Hamilton
Stuckey/BG
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ZoomSlowik
post Aug 11 2009, 06:13 PM
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I seriously doubt they bench Villanueva given the contract that they just gave him. Wallace probably won't be useful for more than 5 minute bursts or so at his age, because of that he's probably a bench player.

Also, Wilcox is not better than anything the Bulls have. He is a pretty good finisher but has no post moves or shooting range at all, he only hit like 30% of his shots outside the immediate basket area and like 3/4 of his inside shots were assisted. They don't have anyone that you can definitively call even an average big man when you factor in all of their abilities. At least the Bulls are semi-competent inside between Noah, Thomas and Miller, especially on defense. That's more than you can say for Villanueva and Wilcox.

They have three decent to good wing players, that's the only real plus with their team. They ALL rely extremely heavily on their jumpshot. 85% of Hamilton's shots are jumpers, 80% of Gordon's shots are jumpers and Prince gets 50% of his shots on 2-point jumpers and only hits 36% of them (he's a better finisher than I thought but not amazing).

You win in the NBA because of your top-3 players, and Detroit's top three is Gordon/Hamilton/Prince. That's not getting you anywhere. At least the Bulls have Rose, the only guy that is a star-level player on either team. Hamilton and Prince aren't exactly light years better than Deng and Salmons either, while Thomas and Noah have considerably more upside than the Pistons' frontcourt.

It's not impossible for the Bulls to finish below Detroit or for the Pistons to make the playoffs, but the odds aren't in favor of it.
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eddog2
post Aug 11 2009, 10:59 PM
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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 11 2009, 07:13 PM) *
I seriously doubt they bench Villanueva given the contract that they just gave him. Wallace probably won't be useful for more than 5 minute bursts or so at his age, because of that he's probably a bench player.

Also, Wilcox is not better than anything the Bulls have. He is a pretty good finisher but has no post moves or shooting range at all, he only hit like 30% of his shots outside the immediate basket area and like 3/4 of his inside shots were assisted. They don't have anyone that you can definitively call even an average big man when you factor in all of their abilities. At least the Bulls are semi-competent inside between Noah, Thomas and Miller, especially on defense. That's more than you can say for Villanueva and Wilcox.

They have three decent to good wing players, that's the only real plus with their team. They ALL rely extremely heavily on their jumpshot. 85% of Hamilton's shots are jumpers, 80% of Gordon's shots are jumpers and Prince gets 50% of his shots on 2-point jumpers and only hits 36% of them (he's a better finisher than I thought but not amazing).

You win in the NBA because of your top-3 players, and Detroit's top three is Gordon/Hamilton/Prince. That's not getting you anywhere. At least the Bulls have Rose, the only guy that is a star-level player on either team. Hamilton and Prince aren't exactly light years better than Deng and Salmons either, while Thomas and Noah have considerably more upside than the Pistons' frontcourt.

It's not impossible for the Bulls to finish below Detroit or for the Pistons to make the playoffs, but the odds aren't in favor of it.


Wilcox is a better finisher than anybody on our team. Sure his stats from last year don't indicate that but other than the occasional Tyrus dunk, Tyrus isn't nearly as coordinated down low. Wilcox occasionally does get the ball drop in and he can hit a soft hook shot every now and then. Sure he's never demanded the ball in the post but he's definately more capable of scoring with his back to the basket than Miller/Noah/or Tyrus. Noah shot a higher % but that's because almost of all his shots are uncontested. Event he ones he makes are real ugly.

You are correct when you say our guys are better defensively and that Rose is a major difference. That is true but I'm still not sold on him being as effective as the #1 option. I think him playing with BG created a lot of holes to penetrate that likely won't be there this season. Meanwhile, playing with BG should make Prince/Hamilton/& Charlie V. better. Prince is pretty effective in the post when he has a smaller defender. I think that having BG there will reduce the likelihood of a double team which will allow Prince to either hit the baby hook or find an open Rip who will be cutting like always.

Anyway, I think Hamilton/Prince/B.G. is a good problem to have. I don't think there is a coach in the league that wouldn't be interested in having that problem (if cap issues were not of concern). If Deng does not come back fully healthy, I'd argue that those 3 are better than our top 3. (Hamilton > Salmons, Prince >Deng, Rose > BG overall but not scoring). How is that not a good top 3? It's not Sheed/Hamilton/Billups that won the title or Hamilton/Prince/Billups but it's still very formidable.

On a side note, do you know that Prince has played in 492 straight games. That's pretty good. B.G. has only missed 12 games in 5 seasons while Hamilton has missed 39. Meanwhile Deng has missed 77 games in 5 years. That's the difference between our top 3 and theirs. Deng has missed 26 more games than their top 3 combined over the past 5 years.
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ZoomSlowik
post Aug 12 2009, 12:16 AM
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I think you really overestimate Prince's abilities. He has talent and makes few mistakes, but he has never scored 15 points in a season despite regularly taking 12-13 shots a year. That's not a very good scoring rate. Even in a down year last season Deng was about as productive as Prince usually is, if he's healthy he has more upside as an offensive player and is nearly as effective defensively.

Salmons also had a hell of a year last season, he shot almost 48% from the floor and over 40% from the arc. I realize that was his career year by a good margin, but if he's even close to that he's better than Hamilton or Prince and a reasonable replacement for Gordon, especially since he's a solid defender.

Gordon is better than either of those wing players, but again, I think you overestimate how big of an impact he has on the rest of the team. If he really makes everyone around him better, then Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas must REALLY suck. He's not a guy that draws entire defenses to him, he's a guy that can usually be covered with one player and does most of his damage on long jumpers. It's not like Detroit has the drivers or post players to take advantage of guys having to stay with him outside.

I realize there are an awful lot of ifs with the Bulls, but even if Salmons regresses to a low double figures scorers, Deng plays 50 or 60 games again and Tyrus, Noah and Rose make zero progress Detroit still doesn't exactly blow them out of the water.

You could make a very strong case that the Bulls are better at every spot in the lineup except for shooting guard, that's why they have a much better chance of making the playoffs. Barring someone like Stuckey or Maxiell making a massive leap, they're a very average team. That's basically what the Bulls are, but there is are more reasons to expect the Bulls to be a bit better than that.

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eddog2
post Aug 12 2009, 07:54 AM
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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 12 2009, 01:16 AM) *
I think you really overestimate Prince's abilities. He has talent and makes few mistakes, but he has never scored 15 points in a season despite regularly taking 12-13 shots a year. That's not a very good scoring rate. Even in a down year last season Deng was about as productive as Prince usually is, if he's healthy he has more upside as an offensive player and is nearly as effective defensively.

Salmons also had a hell of a year last season, he shot almost 48% from the floor and over 40% from the arc. I realize that was his career year by a good margin, but if he's even close to that he's better than Hamilton or Prince and a reasonable replacement for Gordon, especially since he's a solid defender.

Gordon is better than either of those wing players, but again, I think you overestimate how big of an impact he has on the rest of the team. If he really makes everyone around him better, then Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas must REALLY suck. He's not a guy that draws entire defenses to him, he's a guy that can usually be covered with one player and does most of his damage on long jumpers. It's not like Detroit has the drivers or post players to take advantage of guys having to stay with him outside.

I realize there are an awful lot of ifs with the Bulls, but even if Salmons regresses to a low double figures scorers, Deng plays 50 or 60 games again and Tyrus, Noah and Rose make zero progress Detroit still doesn't exactly blow them out of the water.

You could make a very strong case that the Bulls are better at every spot in the lineup except for shooting guard, that's why they have a much better chance of making the playoffs. Barring someone like Stuckey or Maxiell making a massive leap, they're a very average team. That's basically what the Bulls are, but there is are more reasons to expect the Bulls to be a bit better than that.


Let's not get carried away with the Salmons anointing. The guy had 1 very good year. That does not justify you saying he's better than Hamilton who is a three time all-star. Sure his numbers last year were good but let him do that without Gordon this year before we anoint him as being such as great player. As for Prince, he's a very good all around player. I never said he was a great scorer. I just said that with Gordon he'll be able to use his height more effectively b/c he probably won't get doubled when he posts up smaller defenders. Not sure if you have ever watched him play but he does a great job defensively and has a very nice hook shoot in the post (though he's as skinny as a rail). I believe he's an all-around better player than Deng (but Deng has more potential for improvement).

I'm not worried about the Pistons scoring. B.G./Hamilton/Prince/Charlie V. will provide a bulk of the scoring and Bynum/Stuckey/Wilcox can provide the rest. It might come down to defense this year for the Pistons but I am just making the point that I think they could be better than everyone expects. We'll just have to wait and see. And it's still not too late for RIP to be traded.
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ZoomSlowik
post Aug 12 2009, 10:03 AM
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If you read what I wrote more closely, there was clearly a qualifying "if" in there. I realize that Salmons is no lock to be that good again. Playing with Rose will give him every opportunity to reproduce that season, Derrick actually is the type of player that can draw entire defenses to him with his penetration. Plus who knows when Hamilton starts to decline a bit, he had his worst year from the field last year in several seasons.
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eddog2
post Aug 12 2009, 03:59 PM
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Back to the Wizards. Maybe this will help some of you jump on the bandwagon. Is Gilbert set to make a Wade "light" type comeback following two injury plagued seasons? If so, I think top 4 in the east is for sure a possiblity.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4394425

http://washingtontimes.com/weblogs/outlet/.../arenas-update/
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ZoomSlowik
post Aug 12 2009, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE
"There's no question, a player of his talent, when he's playing, he puts us from a team that's competing for the playoffs to a team that's an elite team in the playoffs. When you walk in the gym right now, you wouldn't think that he's hurt," Saunders said.


This quote right here is the big problem. The Wizards weren't a playoff team last year, in fact they weren't remotely close to the playoffs. Even if you say that Arenas makes them 15 games better, which is pretty generous considering Dwyane Wade "only" had 14.4 win shares last year, they'd have to make up another 7 wins just to get to .500, and another 5-10 to get homecourt in the first round. If he's even remotely off, they're still stuck in the 30's for wins.
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Balta1701-B
post Aug 12 2009, 07:16 PM
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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 12 2009, 05:13 PM) *
This quote right here is the big problem. The Wizards weren't a playoff team last year, in fact they weren't remotely close to the playoffs. Even if you say that Arenas makes them 15 games better, which is pretty generous considering Dwyane Wade "only" had 14.4 win shares last year, they'd have to make up another 7 wins just to get to .500, and another 5-10 to get homecourt in the first round. If he's even remotely off, they're still stuck in the 30's for wins.

So that Miami team last year without Wade was a 36-46 team and was about as good as the Pacers? I'm not sure I buy that.
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ZoomSlowik
post Aug 12 2009, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE (Balta1701-B @ Aug 12 2009, 08:16 PM) *
So that Miami team last year without Wade was a 36-46 team and was about as good as the Pacers? I'm not sure I buy that.


As I kind of implied in that post, in the NBA one win share= 1 win (at least using this system). So 43-14=29 which is maybe a bit high but still gets across the general point that Wade single handedly takes them from quite bad to the #5 seed.
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Sanitarium
post Aug 12 2009, 10:49 PM
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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 12 2009, 10:29 PM) *
As I kind of implied in that post, in the NBA one win share= 1 win (at least using this system). So 43-14=29 which is maybe a bit high but still gets across the general point that Wade single handedly takes them from quite bad to the #5 seed.


I have no problem believing that.

Their roster outside of Beasley just isn't very impressive at all.
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eddog2
post Aug 13 2009, 08:18 AM
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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 12 2009, 09:29 PM) *
As I kind of implied in that post, in the NBA one win share= 1 win (at least using this system). So 43-14=29 which is maybe a bit high but still gets across the general point that Wade single handedly takes them from quite bad to the #5 seed.


If Wade can single handedly take the worst team in the league to the 5th seed in one season I have no doubt that a fully healthy Arenas when combined with off-season acquisitions of Miller & Foye and a roster with two all-star caliber players (Butler & Jamison) should be able to do at least that much. I'm thinking 5th is about as low as they finish. Washington wasn't the worst team last year. They just gave up toward the 2nd half of the year (and basically all year) b/c they knew Arenas wasn't coming back. He's the leader of their team and it was a big blow mentally once he went down.

So they played for a high draft pick. When the ping pong balls didn't go their way, they did the right thing and traded the pick for talent that would make them a better team. Would Johnny Flynn have been better? Possibly. But by adding Mike Miller (a proven shooter) and Randy Foye (a very capable scorer off the bench) the Wizards decided they would do everything in their power to win now. I am confident that their decision will pay off next year in the form of a high seed and possible deep playoff run.
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ZoomSlowik
post Aug 13 2009, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE (eddog2 @ Aug 13 2009, 09:18 AM) *
If Wade can single handedly take the worst team in the league to the 5th seed in one season I have no doubt that a fully healthy Arenas when combined with off-season acquisitions of Miller & Foye and a roster with two all-star caliber players (Butler & Jamison) should be able to do at least that much. I'm thinking 5th is about as low as they finish. Washington wasn't the worst team last year. They just gave up toward the 2nd half of the year (and basically all year) b/c they knew Arenas wasn't coming back. He's the leader of their team and it was a big blow mentally once he went down.

So they played for a high draft pick. When the ping pong balls didn't go their way, they did the right thing and traded the pick for talent that would make them a better team. Would Johnny Flynn have been better? Possibly. But by adding Mike Miller (a proven shooter) and Randy Foye (a very capable scorer off the bench) the Wizards decided they would do everything in their power to win now. I am confident that their decision will pay off next year in the form of a high seed and possible deep playoff run.


There are several problems with that:

-Dwayne Wade is a better player than Arenas. That even includes the assumption that he gets back to his 28 PPG peak, if he doesn't the gap between the two is quite a bit bigger.

-Even with a healthy Arenas and those two fringe-type All-Stars, Washington hasn't won more than 43 games with that core.

-You keep touting the Miller and Foye acquisitions like that's 10 wins added. Both are role players that made little impact in Minnesota and will likely see reduced minutes in Washington. That will also mean reduced minutes for Nick Young and DeShawn Stevenson thanks to the cluster-fish they have on the perimeter.

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Foye had either no impact or a negative impact, he's used to firing at will on an awful team and does basically nothing but score. How useful is that on a team that already has Jamison, Butler and possibly a healthy Arenas?

-They absolutely were the worst team in the east last year and they played like it. Jamison and Butler weren't significantly worse than normal and all of these role players that are supposed to give them great depth this year generally sucked. Darius Songalia was third on the team with 2.4 win shares, that's pathetic.

Butler and Jamison are solid, but not the kind of players that can carry a team. Given the defensive deficiencies of the team they need Arenas to be their best player by a decent margin to be even remotely successful, and that's still not a given.

There's a chance that they have a good season, but they are FAR from a lock to make the leap from worst team in the east to even the playoffs, much less a top-5 seed. They didn't exactly add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and get Paul Pierce back from injury like the Celtics did.

If we are making the assumption that Arenas is 100% healthy I'd probably bump them up to #7, but for now there's still a distinct possibility that he pull an Elton Brand and sucks in brief returns like he did the last two years. I have a hard time seeing them be a whole lot better than that.
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eddog2
post Aug 13 2009, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 13 2009, 10:54 AM) *
There are several problems with that:

-Dwayne Wade is a better player than Arenas. That even includes the assumption that he gets back to his 28 PPG peak, if he doesn't the gap between the two is quite a bit bigger.

-Even with a healthy Arenas and those two fringe-type All-Stars, Washington hasn't won more than 43 games with that core.

-You keep touting the Miller and Foye acquisitions like that's 10 wins added. Both are role players that made little impact in Minnesota and will likely see reduced minutes in Washington. That will also mean reduced minutes for Nick Young and DeShawn Stevenson thanks to the cluster-fish they have on the perimeter.

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Foye had either no impact or a negative impact, he's used to firing at will on an awful team and does basically nothing but score. How useful is that on a team that already has Jamison, Butler and possibly a healthy Arenas?

-They absolutely were the worst team in the east last year and they played like it. Jamison and Butler weren't significantly worse than normal and all of these role players that are supposed to give them great depth this year generally sucked. Darius Songalia was third on the team with 2.4 win shares, that's pathetic.

Butler and Jamison are solid, but not the kind of players that can carry a team. Given the defensive deficiencies of the team they need Arenas to be their best player by a decent margin to be even remotely successful, and that's still not a given.

There's a chance that they have a good season, but they are FAR from a lock to make the leap from worst team in the east to even the playoffs, much less a top-5 seed. They didn't exactly add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and get Paul Pierce back from injury like the Celtics did.

If we are making the assumption that Arenas is 100% healthy I'd probably bump them up to #7, but for now there's still a distinct possibility that he pull an Elton Brand and sucks in brief returns like he did the last two years. I have a hard time seeing them be a whole lot better than that.


I never said Arenas was going to be as good as Wade. That's why I called him Wade "light". Anyway, if he comes back fully healthy he has much more to work with than Wade had in Miami. Haywood/McGee with Jamison at PF is much better than JO/Haslem. They have youth and an abundance of scoring. And adding Mike Miller (who you call a fringe player) to improve their outside shooting was a great addition. Their bench this year will be much better at scoring the ball.

As for Foye I somewhat agree with you. But I think he's underrated. Him being the 4th, 5th, or 6th option on offense should open him up for easy looks. Same for Miller. When you start getting better looks you typically shoot better from the field. I also think Foye could excel in the 2nd unit in a 6th man role.

However, if the Wizards are smart they'll try and pull a sign and trade for Felton and move one of their SG's. I think moving Young would be the best move. All he does is score like you said. That would allow Gilbert to move to the SG spot and then the 2nd unit would be Foye/Stevenson/Miller/Blatche/McGee. That's a big improvement over what they had last year. Foye & Miller essentially are both better than any scorers they had off the bench last year.

Anyway, what the Wizards did by getting Miller & Foye is increase their options and the talent on their team. Even without any other trades and if Gilbert stayed hurt they'd be a better team by getting both of them and Haywood back. You seem to be ignoring the fact that Haywood was their best big man and he missed most of the year. Add in a healhty Arenas and that will produce W's. Their deep team will allow them to make moves at the deadline to obtain what they feel they are lacking but even with no moves they will be night and day from last year.

Anyway, you know I love going back and forth on issues with you. We are not going to agree on this so lets agree to disagree and when the Wizards finish higher than 7th you can tell me how right I was.
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