NBA teams may realize size doesn't matter, Sam Smith on NBA Draft Options

[dasox24]

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sp...,7006699.column

NBA teams may realize size doesn't matter


So whom do the Bulls select in the June 26 NBA draft? Will they have a shot at Kansas State's Michael Beasley or Memphis' Derrick Rose? Perhaps someone like Russell Westbrook or a sleeper like Hales Franciscan grad JaVale McGee, a 7-footer whom one NBA executive told me he'd take if he were drafting for the Bulls?

The NBA guys will be filling out their brackets and pools this week as the NCAA tournament begins. But they'll be looking at something other than which 12th seed can beat a fifth.

The tournament represents the last time the pro scouts will see the college talent in games before the draft. A lot changes when players come in for workouts. However, it's not always for the best.

In interviews with about a dozen team executives and talent evaluators in the last week, the consensus is that Kansas State's Beasley will be the No. 1 pick, though without complete certainty. They point out that Beasley has had maturity issues and in the wrong setting could have trouble. Rose, from Simeon, is said to be the consolation prize, though if I were the Bulls and was picking No. 1, that's whom I'd take.

But pros are reluctant to take a small player No. 1. If you could go back, you'd take Brandon Roy over Andrea Bargnani in 2006 and Chris Paul or Deron Williams over Andrew Bogut in 2005. Plus we've seen how much a point guard can mean for an NBA team today in light of rule changes that aid perimeter players. The Bulls are said to be interested in upgrading at point guard, but it remains unclear whether they'll be in the lottery or make the playoffs.

At their current spot, they'd be in the lottery. Without moving up, they would pick 10th. That likely would give them a shot at someone like UCLA's guards, Westbrook and Darren Collison, or even Stanford sophomore center Brook Lopez, who could slip as the pros get enamored of the athletic freshmen. One veteran talent evaluator pointed me toward McGee for the Bulls, saying he'd be the best big man from this group in three years.

The chart at right shows an early look at how the pros, with some of my biases included, see the first round of the draft with everyone in college included. This is a first look and will change as players decide to stay in school and move up or down in workouts.

1. Derrick Rose, 6-3, 190, Memphis. Potentially great point guards are toughest to find and most important to have.

2. Michael Beasley, 6-10, 235, Kansas State. Impact power forward likened to Derrick Coleman (overwhelming skills, potential distraction).

3. Brook Lopez, 7-0, 260, Stanford. Mechanical, but he can score. One GM said with two more years in college, he could be Tim Duncan.

4. Eric Gordon, 6-4, 215, Indiana. Somewhere between Ben Gordon and Chauncey Billups. Pros don't know if he can play point.

5. Jerryd Bayless, 6-3, 199, Arizona. Tough competitor and scorer who also is bit small for shooting guard but not true point.

6. Kevin Love, 6-10, 260, UCLA. Not really athletic enough for NBA but will make plays and is best outlet passer since Wes Unseld.

7. Russell Westbrook, 6-3, 187, UCLA. Playing shooting guard in college but said to have potential for point and is big-time prospect.

8. O.J. Mayo, 6-5, 200, USC. Not quite athlete—or problem—he's advertised as. Smallish shooting guard who'll also defend.

9. Blake Griffin, 6-10, 243, Oklahoma. Good all-around big man who has had some injury concerns but is regarded as future NBA All-Star.

10. Anthony Randolph, 6-10, 205, LSU. Athletic, versatile LSU big man on rise. Heard that before? Likened to Chris Bosh, Brandan Wright.

11. DeAndre Jordan, 7-0, 260, Texas A&M. One of those young big men who's not ready but could come on.

12. James Harden, 6-4, 218, Arizona State. All-around athlete and scorer who is saying he'll return for sophomore season.

13. Chase Budinger, 6-7, 203, Arizona. Sean Elliott type who's skilled and leaper but not enamored of contact.

14. JaVale McGee, 7-0, 237, Nevada. Dad is George Montgomery from Illinois, and mom is USC's Pam McGee. Project with big upside.

15. Danilo Gallinari, 6-9, 210, Italy. Tall small forward who has drawn comparisons to Toni Kukoc.

16. D.J. Augustin, 6-0, 180, Texas. Point guard who can run team with good feel for game, but small.

17. Serge Ibaka, 6-10, 220, Congo. There's always an international guy on rise, and this power forward is drawing attention.

18. Darren Collison, 6-1, 165, UCLA. Smallish point guard who has been opening some eyes with defense and improved driving ability.

19. Tyler Hansbrough, 6-9, 250, North Carolina. Doesn't measure up and lacks hops. An upscale Mark Madsen but will play for long time.

20. Darrell Arthur, 6-9, 225, Kansas. Physical specimen who isn't quite rebounder he should be, causing him to drop.

21. Roy Hibbert, 7-2, 278, Georgetown. Should have come out last year. Pros have picked apart his game and decided he's too slow.

22. Hasheem Thabeet, 7-3, 265, Connecticut. Can't score in empty gym, but he's big and you can't teach that.

23. Donte Greene, 6-11, 225, Syracuse. Versatile big man who can play small forward but probably will stay in school.

24. Joe Alexander, 6-8, 230, West Virginia. Skinny jumping jack who is coming on fast and should move up in workouts.

25. J.J. Hickson, 6-9, 242, North Carolina State. Skilled player who can play with back to basket and has NBA game.

26. Gerald Henderson, 6-4, 210, Duke. Son of NBAer by same name is likened to Corey Maggette and will improve as he develops ballhandling.

27. Brandon Rush, 6-6, 210, Kansas. Shooter who'll have place in NBA for several years.

28. Jason Thompson, 6-10, 245, Rider. Senior whom pros found as he kept putting up big numbers, even against bigger schools.

29. Nicolas Batum, 6-8, 210, France. Shooting guard who has had down season after being ranked highly last year.

30. Jeremy Pargo, 6-2, 219, Gonzaga. Underrated point whom some like better than Kansas' Mario Chalmers and Carolina's Ty Lawson.

[ZoomSlowik]

I can't see Love going that high or Thabeet going that low, though that'll likely adjust as they do workouts. Harden is also probably a bit high, some scouts wonder about his athleticism.

[Balta1701-B]

Size clearly doesn't matter. Just ask Jim Boylan. When things get rough, he goes to the small lineup with no PF every time.

[bschmaranz]

Great point guards are the most important thing to have? Tell that to every team Phil Jackson coached to a title and while I like Tony Parker, is he great?

[Balta1701-B]

Great point guards are the most important thing to have? Tell that to every team Phil Jackson coached to a title and while I like Tony Parker, is he great?

He certainly had a great run last year, especially in the finals.

[ZoomSlowik]

Well, in the regular season having an elite PG generally seems to translates into a solid team more regularly than any other position, but in the playoffs stud big men and elite scorers take over.

[Chicago Bulls Fr...]

My wish list consists of

1. Derrick Rose
2. Russel Westbrook
3. OJ Mayo

We need a true point guard or atleast one that can create plays for others. We don't have that on this team and Derrick Rose is amazing at that with his lightning quickness and the one man fast break threat. We have got to be thee worst fastbreak team in the entire NBA, and I've watched countless times where we get a 2 on 1 or a 3 on 1 that winds up being a Kirk Hinrich pull up jumper or a turnover.. That is unacceptable.

Any one of those three I believe would make a good fit at guard for us. Hopefully are tanking job gets us to a top 3 pick so we have a chance at Rose, otherwise we'll have to go Westbrook.

[ZoomSlowik]

My wish list consists of

1. Derrick Rose
2. Russel Westbrook
3. OJ Mayo

We need a true point guard or atleast one that can create plays for others. We don't have that on this team and Derrick Rose is amazing at that with his lightning quickness and the one man fast break threat. We have got to be thee worst fastbreak team in the entire NBA, and I've watched countless times where we get a 2 on 1 or a 3 on 1 that winds up being a Kirk Hinrich pull up jumper or a turnover.. That is unacceptable.

Any one of those three I believe would make a good fit at guard for us. Hopefully are tanking job gets us to a top 3 pick so we have a chance at Rose, otherwise we'll have to go Westbrook.

You really don't want Mayo then. Actually, he's a god-awful fit if Gordon and Hughes are still on the roster, they're all shoot-first guards that can't really handle the point.

[Chicago Bulls Fr...]

You really don't want Mayo then. Actually, he's a god-awful fit if Gordon and Hughes are still on the roster, they're all shoot-first guards that can't really handle the point.

Yeah, I really don't think Gordon and or Hughes will be on the team next year so it would make room for Mayo. He's a cross between Stephon Marbury and Gilbert Arenas.

[ZoomSlowik]

Yeah, I really don't think Gordon and or Hughes will be on the team next year so it would make room for Mayo. He's a cross between Stephon Marbury and Gilbert Arenas.

Maybe. You can throw Larry Hughes and Jamal Crawford into the same group there too, not a whole lot of seperation. One part of the comparison definitely seems to fit: his stats will be more impressive than the team's win totals. He definitely has scoring ability, he hasn't shown a whole lot else though. His shooting percentage is going to be nasty next year, it's already down in the low/mid 40's in college.

[eddog2]

If we get a late pick I wouldn't mind taking the risk on Serge Ibaka. He at least looks like he has the potential to be very good. The last thing the Bulls need is another fringe player. Then again, the last thing they need is another project. But if I had to choose b/w project and fringe player I'll take the project any day.

http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/profiles/sergeibaka.html

[Steve9347]

Personally, I'd like to see tyler hansbrough on this team. I think just because he's white he's being underrated, but seriously, if he were black, people would be talking top 5 with him...

[ZoomSlowik]

Personally, I'd like to see tyler hansbrough on this team. I think just because he's white he's being underrated, but seriously, if he were black, people would be talking top 5 with him...

I really don't think so. He's too short, and isn't really athletic enough. Just look at Roy Hibbert, he's an awful lot bigger and probably won't be a lottery pick as things stand right now now. Yeah, Hansbrough is a lot more productive, but for NBA purposes they're pretty similar. You could look at Shelden Williams too, he was about as productive as Hansbrough when you factor in defense, went in the top-5 because Atlanta reached badly, and they're regretting that move now. That and several white guys have gone high recently (Bogut, Bargnani, Morrison, Milicic, Dunleavy and Tskitisvili in the top-5 since 2000).

I wouldn't take him unless we somehow got a late pick. He's going to have a hard time being a starting caliber player, he'll probably fit in as a hustle guy off the bench. If we were going to take an undersized PF, I'd much rather have Kevin Love (kinda debateable, listed at 6'9" but seems smallish) or DJ White personally.

[Chicago Bulls Fr...]

Personally, I'd like to see tyler hansbrough on this team. I think just because he's white he's being underrated, but seriously, if he were black, people would be talking top 5 with him...

Yeah more undersized white guys.. Just what we need

I'm thinking more along the lines of a point guard. A true point guard can be just as important as a true center and seeing how there really isn't a god like big man in this years draft I would like to see us make room for a guard on this team and get rid of like Kirk,Gordon,Hughes, and Nocioni is a given, he sucks big time.. (Not saying get rid of all those guys, but if it helps the team then its a definite yes!)

[Balta1701-B]

Yeah more undersized white guys.. Just what we need

I'm thinking more along the lines of a point guard. A true point guard can be just as important as a true center and seeing how there really isn't a god like big man in this years draft I would like to see us make room for a guard on this team and get rid of like Kirk,Gordon,Hughes, and Nocioni is a given, he sucks big time.. (Not saying get rid of all those guys, but if it helps the team then its a definite yes!)

I like the way you're thinking. Having drafted young guys at the PF, C, and SG position over the last couple years, and assuming we still want Deng at SF next year, PG seems like the obvious point on which we might be able to upgrade. Hinrich is a good player, but he's taken a step back in all aspects of his game this year, and given that Duhon is presumably gone, we might well have room for a new backup PG there to take some decent minutes. Assuming whatever coach we get actually plays the kid (HA!) that is.