Andy Katz Season Preview

You can link to comments on most of the top teams from this article...

My early thoughts:

-Teams that are too high: Texas A&M, Pitt, Arizona, Georgetown.

Texas A&M was only a decent team and didn't add any impact newcomers. Jones and Law can only get you so far. Pitt lost a lot with Krauser graduating. Aaron Gray and Sam Young are solid, but I'm not convinced that Ronald Ramon and Levon Kirkland are that great. Arizona and Georgetown both have talent, but some of their key players are young and will take some time. I wouldn't put them quite that high just yet because of it.

-Teams that are too low: OSU, UCLA, BC, Duke Georgia Tech.

OSU is really one of the top 5 teams in the country on pure talent. They have two solid returning players in Butler and Lewis, Cook should be an impact player right away, and obviously Greg Oden is a monster once he gets on the court. Perhaps they got docked because of Oden's injury, but I wouldn't have done that. UCLA brings back several key players from an NCAA finalist and gets Shipp back in the lineup. Collison should fill in nicely at PG. BC lost Smith, but they still have Dudley, Marshall, Rice, and Williams. That's a pretty solid core. Much as I hate to say it, Duke still has an awful lot of talent coming back. They should be in the bottom half of the top 10. McRoberts will get a lot more chances to show of his immense talent, Paulus returns at the point, Nelson will actually be healthy, and Gerald Henderson sould be an impact player from day 1. Georgia Tech brings back several talented players and also adds blue-chippers Javaris Crittendon and Thaddeus Young. They're pretty deep.

-Teams with a lot of talent that aren't getting much hype: Syracuse, Michigan, Maryland.

Syracuse lost McNamara, but virtually everyone else is back. Terrence Roberts and Demetrius Nicholas are two very talented forwards, Devendorf provides a lot of the same things that McNamara did, and newcomer Paul Harris is one of the best guards in the country. Dion Harris and Courtney Sims are solid, and so is Lester Abram if he can ever stay healthy. Ron Coleman and Brent Petway have potential, and DeShawn Sims is a pretty talented freshman. Maryland has as talented a starting lineup as anyone with D.J. Strawberry, Mike Jones, James Gist, Travis Garrison, and Ekene Ibekwe. They simply need to find the right combinations and chemistry to maximize their talent.

Any thoughts? What teams do you like? What teams are overrated? Who's your sleeper?

A couple of interesting things... For me, we all know how hard it is to repeat, so Florida is kind of out of it in my mind. Also Bill Self hasn't beat a team with a higher seed than his in the tourney since he left Tulsa, and we all know about Kansas's tourney history lately, so they are out. This year I really like NC to make the run for another title behind Hansborugh.

Thoughts?

I hate counting teams out simply because it is tough to repeat, especially since I think only 3 title teams since 1990 have returned their entire core (2 Laettner/Hill/Hurley teams and 98 Arizona). Florida is still a very talented team that could have 3 lottery picks (Noah, Horford and Brewer).

However, the NCAA seems to be a lot more loaded with quality teams this year. Last year the only team that really looked elite for long stretches was UConn, and they slept-walked through most of the year. IMO Florida, Kansas, UNC, OSU, and LSU (though they'll need a little time to gel) all look very strong, and there are a few other teams with potential.

I think a lot of it will depend on how the freshmen/newcomers on UNC, OSU, and LSU perform. You've got a bit more of an idea of what Florida and Kansas can do (though I definitely think Kansas can get better). UNC will be good no matter what, but to be championship quality I think Lawson and Ellington have to play on a pretty high level. They are definitely talented enough to do it. OSU will be very dangerous once Oden is 100%, but Cook, Conley, Lighty, and Hunter could be huge factors too. LSU is going to need time to get Minor and Mason into the swing of things, and if Myron Rolle can be a reasonable facsimile of Thomas (he's similarly athletic and has about the same build) that would be huge.

I think it will be a very interesting tournament this year. A lot of top underclassmen stuck around, and with a full freshmen class for the first time in a while (and a very good one at that) there is a lot of new talent coming in as well.

There is much more talent this year in college basketball than last year, no question there. As of right now I think the two teams to beat are Florida and the Buckeyes. Yes it is hard to repeat but Florida's guards do something that you rarely see in college basketball, they give it to their big men every single possession, I absolutely love to watch that team play together. If I had to make a prediction right now for a national champion, it'd be Florida again. UNC and Kansas are talented as all hell but I'm not sold on Bobby Frasor and UNC's guard play and Kansas, well they have coaching problems. A few other random notes from me: I'll say right now, Duke will make it further in the tournament this year than they did last year, they'll be in the elite 8, depending on their draw UCLA will be back in the final four--my love for UCLA is back Zoom . Zoom, I almost agree with everything you said about your overrated/underrated teams..almost. I honestly think Gtown is rated about fine, I expect a very nice season out of them, and I actually love what A&M has coming into this year, I expect them to have a great season. Pitt at number 4 is a joke to me though, they'll be good but no where near that good. I'm not sold on Zona either, especially as a top 10 team.

A few more underrated teams imo: Villanova, Memphis, Virginia, Florida State, SIU(42 is a joke for this team).

Preseason final four: SIU, Creighton, Wichita State and Missouri State.

I like UCLA a lot more right now than I did last year. Losing Farmar obviously will hurt a bit, but Collison should be able to step in, Shipp can really play and he's back, and they add Keefe, a pretty solid recruit. Plus these guys have another year under their belt, Mbah a Moute especially should be a bigger force.

I don't know about Georgetown yet. I like Green and Hibbert a lot, and Macklin and Summers are both very talented freshmen. However, they lost several regulars, and it normally takes a while to get used to that offense. IMO they may or may not be a major force again. I also just don't think A&M is that good. Law and Jones are very good, but the rest of their roster doesn't impress me. They're going to need someone else to step up to justify a top-10 ranking.

I love the way A&M defends and I'm a HUGE fan of Law. I'll get more in depth with my college basketball preview as a whole(I know the whole site can't wait for that ) in a few weeks once all the preseason rankings come out and such. I'm looking forward to this year though, can't wait for November 2nd, first Saluki game.

The first polls are out, and (duh) Florida is rated number by a long shot. They are followed by UNC and Kansas at #2 and #3. In the AP OSU checks in as the highest rated big 10 team at #7, with UW at #9. The ESPN/USA today poll has OSU at #4 with UW #9.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankingsindex

I've warmed up to A&M a bit, I didn't realize that their freshmen class was quite as strong as it is. Improved depth will definitely help. I still think someone else has to step up and be a legit 3rd option for them to be great (maybe Carter or Davis can do it).

Anyone familiar with the Big 12 know if Baylor is going to be any better? I really want to see Drew succeed down there.

They've definitely got some talent. Their backcourt is very solid with Aaron Bruce, Curtis Jerrells, and freshman Demond Carter, and Josh Lomers and Djibril Thiam were pretty good recruits as well. Actually playing a non-conference slate should help them out a bit. They'll be a legit team this year, and if things go well they could conceivably sneak into the tournament.