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ZoomSlowik
I know it's a little early, but the off-season is winding down and there's nothing else to talk about before football starts anyways. lolhitting.gif

What teams do you think are going to be legit threats? Who are your sleepers? Who is going to underachieve? What players are due for a breakout?

ZoomSlowik
I'll throw my thoughts on the standings in here too. I'll try to add tiers because some gaps will be a lot bigger than others.

East

1) Celtics- I really think they have the best lineup if KG is healthy. Their big 3 are getting a bit old, but Rondo and Perkins are very solid younger players that can produce big if someone misses some time. Also, Perkins is one of the few guys in the league that can slow down Dwight 1-on-1, so IMO they have an edge in that matchup if KG is even 80%.

2) Magic- Carter has more talent than Turkoglu and they improved their depth quite a bit. The Lewis suspension probably hurts their chances of getting the one seed, but it won't really matter in the long run. My biggest question with them is how close will Jameer Nelson get to last year's performance? He was having a great year before he got hurt.

3) Cavaliers- On paper they don't look terribly impressive, but Lebron has a bigger positive impact on their record than any player in the league. I hate predicting their finish because where they finish depends almost entirely on how dominant Lebron is in my book. They're probably a mid-lottery team without him.

----major drop-off-----

4) Hawks- They're a weird team. I really like a lot of their guys, but they don't have that one transcendent player. Every player on their roster is about one spot higher on the scouting report than they should be on a true contender. I think their final record will depend on how good Al Horford is. If he keeps putting up about 11-9 then they're going to finish with about 45 wins, if he can take the next step and start averaging 16-18 points that'd be a huge boost for them. Whether Jamal Crawford hurts or helps them is another issue.

----another smaller drop-off----

5) Raptors- This is where things start to get murky. Unless absolutely everything goes right I have a hard time seeing anyone else in this conference reach the high-40's in wins, they all have some pretty significant flaws.

Offensively, the Raptors will be impressive. Bosh gives them a balanced #1 option and Bargnani, Turkoglu and Calderon can all hit from outside. The defense is another story though, all of those guys are average at best on that end. Strong interior teams that can push them around will have field days against them. They'll play a lot of games in the triple digits and probably finish a bit over .500.

6) Heat- If anything happens to Wade, drop them near the bottom. The rest of this roster is pretty awful. I think Beasley will have a breakout year if he gets the minutes, and I kind of like Chalmers and Haslem as role players. However, nothing works for them if Wade isn't dominant.

7) Bulls- Between Rose's talent and their overall depth, I'm fairly confident that they'll make the playoffs. They really need Deng and/or Thomas to perform to help compensate for the loss of Gordon though. If Deng keeps getting hurt and/or Thomas continues to be inconsistent, they can definitely slide down the standings.

---drop-off, teams fighting for the last playoff spot or two---

8) Philadelphia- Losing Miller hurts, they don't have a good option at point guard. However, Iguodala and Young are talented wing players and they have some talent up front. A healthy Brand would be a big boost, but if he plays like last year they're in trouble. Dalembert needs to get better, though they might just be better off playing my guy Marresse Speights.

9) Washington- On paper they're pretty strong, but they were awful last year and could definitely suffer from chemistry and defensive issues. They have a lot of low percentage chuckers and no one that's a distributor or an enforcer inside. Still, that might be enough to eek out a playoff spot as they have the potential to score in bunches when their shots are falling.

10) Detroit- I've made it known that I'm not really a fan of this roster. They have several guys that can score but Stuckey is still developing at the point. Their interior defense and rebounding could also be a significant issue. Like a few other teams, they'll also rely very heavily on the jumper, hurting their consistency.

---Drop-off to random collections of junk that won't really matter in the long run---

11) Indiana- Between Granger and a potentially healthy Dunleavy, they should score enough points to steal some wins. However, their frontcourt is full of average or worse players and TJ Ford looks better on paper than he is at this point.

12) New Jersey- Devin Harris and Raul Lopez should prevent them from being totally awful. I also like Courtney Lee as a breakout candidate. They're woefully short on depth and scoring options besides those players though.

13) Milwaukee- If Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are relatively healthy and Ramon Sessions is retained, I think they can be somewhat respectable. If not, they'll end up in the high lottery.

14) Charlotte- They're very short on scoring. Gerald Wallace is pretty solid when healthy, but they'll struggle to reach the high 90's on a consistent basis.

15) New York- There are very few redeeming qualities on this roster. Basically the only guy I like at all is David Lee, and he hasn't signed yet. They'll need some significant help from D'Antoni ball to be even remotely successful.

ZoomSlowik
West

1) Lakers- This isn't exactly a surprise. Kobe and Gasol is probably the best inside-out combo in the league. Odom and Artest are talented forwards and Andrew Bynum still has significant upside. They can go big and small and are generally a tough team to deal with.

2) Spurs- If Ginobili stays healthy, they're a legitimate threat for #1. They need his versatile offensive repetoire and shooting ability to balance the interior dominance of Duncan and the slashing ability of Parker. Jefferson will do as a third option if Manu misses 20 games or so, but they'll need him in the playoffs. Hill, Blair, McDyess and Mason should let them give their stars some chances to rest.

---drop-off, though nowhere near as big as the one from 3 to 4 in the East---

3) Nuggets- I think Melo has a much better year on paper this season, and Billups also helps a lot. Their frontcourt is solid but not spectacular with Martin, Nene and Anderson and Smith adds an explosive wing scorer. If the health issues for their big men return, they could definitely slide a bit.

4) Trailblazers- I honestly didn't realize they won 54 games last year, that actually seems a little high when you look at their roster. Roy was great and Aldridge was solid, but the rest of their roster was average or worse. They have a lot of intriguing players but they don't all produce.

Miller is an upgrade at the point, but I honestly think Hinrich would have been a better fit because he is more capable of playing off the ball and a better outside shooter to capitalize on the attention Roy gets. They have the potential to blow up as a team if Oden or Fernandez becomes an above average starter. They'd also be scary if they could get an elite sniping wing like Michael Redd or Kevin Martin, which may be possible given their collection of talented young guys and the general sucking of those player's respective teams.

5) Mavericks- They've got plenty of shooters with Dirk, Terry and Howard, Kidd is still relatively effective at the point and Marion is still a solid athlete. However, I can't see them playing enough D. They don't have a true center, and Kidd and Terry can't guard anyone at this point. I'd feel a lot better about this team if they had another truly elite second scorer instead of two okay ones to complement Dirk, as he hasn't gotten much done when it matters of late.

6) Hornets- The supporting cast was fairly poor last year, but Paul and West are still elite. Okafor gives them a little more scoring inside than Chandler did, but they're still a capable wing short of being really dangerous.

7) Jazz- I'd probably leave them here even if they were to trade Boozer for crap, though I'd also likely drop them below the cut-off. Williams is still one of the best point guards around and they have enough punch inside even without Boozer to stay competitive. I also really like Brewer as a complementary player at the 2.

---drop-off---

8) Suns- They'll still score in bunches, but they were horrendous defensively last year and there's no real reason to expect that to improve. Thanks to cost-cutting measures over the last several years that cost the team Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion and picks that could have brought them guys like Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, Rajon Rondo or Rudy Fernandez, this team is unfortunately past its peak and no real threat to win anything.

9) Thunder- They should come out on top of a rather uninspiring group of bottom feeders out west. They have a ton of interesting wing players but basically nothing inside, which will prevent them from doing too much in the standings. For them to win significantly more than 30 games, Durant will have to improve his defense and cut his turnovers or Westbrook will have to make significant strides in becoming a true point guard.

10) Clippers- This may sound weird, but they actually have an interesting collection of talent. Gordon and Griffin are highly talented young players, Davis is one of the better point guards in the league when he wants to be, and when healthy Kaman and Camby are great at doing the dirty work inside. They still have no depth, will likely have some chemistry issues and are highly injury prone, but could be intersting down the road if they move one of their bigs for something useful.

11) Warriors- This roster looks a lot more interesting on paper than it really is, especially when Nellie is playing the wrong guys. Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette have talent but take way more shots than they should, and Monta Ellis is not a point guard. They also insist on going incredibly small despite the fact that they have two talented young power forwards, making life extremely difficult for Biedrins. I'd like this team an awful lot more if they dumped Jackson and Maggette for whatever they could get, picked up a legit passing point guard like Sessions, and played a lineup of Sessions-Ellis-Azubuike-Randolph-Biedrins with Curry, Wright and Morrow coming off the bench. Then maybe between the slashing of Ellis and the potential development of Randolph and Wright you might have something instead of a team stuck going nowhere letting talented players rot on the bench because Nelson doesn't like them.

---drop-off to the teams in the race for John Wall---

12) Rockets- This is going to be an ugly year for them. I think on paper you can make a case that they're the worst team in the league, especially while McGrady is hurt. However, they always seem to out-perform their talent because they have a number of solid, productive role players. They don't have a single player I'd be comfortable having as one of my top-2 scorers, but somehow I think they'll make it work well enough to finish ahead of some more disfunctional teams.

13) Timberwolves- I love Jefferson, Love is a double-double guy and Flynn looks like he'll be a legit point, but their wing players are atrocious. You'll probably see a lot of games where Jefferson goes for 25-10 and they still only score 88 points. That's what happens when you waste the #5 pick on a guy that is going to stay in Europe. It also doesn't help that Jefferson and Love are average athletes at best and should both be playing PF, which kills their defense. They need a complete overhaul, which is pretty pathetic given how young their roster is.

14) Grizzlies- Zach Randolph? Really? That move made no sense whatsoever. Now they're probably going to play a brutal froncourt of Randolph and Thabeet regularly while benching the decent but not stellar Marc Gasol, which will probably cost them wins. Mayo and Gay will spend the entire year trading awful contested shots on the way to another sub-30 win season. It's a shame, because they're both very talented players stuck on a messed up roster, and Conley quietly played well down the stretch as well.

15) Kings- They were the worst team in the league last season, and I don't really see them making major strides. I really don't like Tyreke Evans as a point guard, and I think forcing him to play there will hurt his efficiency as well as that of his teammates. It's kind of a waste, because Kevin Martin is one of the best scorers in the league when he's healthy and Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes are serviceable big men. With a pass-first point guard I think they could have had a relatively interesting and entertaining roster. That said, their other players are simply not very good and their defense is brutal. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they dealt Kevin Martin in a Gasol-like deal to save money. They're probably already printing up jerseys for guys like John Wall and Derrick Favors.
eddog2
1. Magic - VC, Anderson, Barnes, Bass. The Magic have youth and a great blend of talent on their team. I think they stay even-keeled and they build on their great season last year.

2. Celtics - Could very well be the best team but I think that the age of the team will cause them to lose some close games. The backup PG spot is still an issue. With the team unsure if Rondo is the long-term answer there could be a rocky relationship that develops during the season.

3. Raptors - Turk, Jack, Rasho, DeRozan, Belinelli plus an improving Bargnani. I'd have to say that the Raptors have had the best overall offseason of any team in the league. They've addressed key areas of concern. They are a more athletic team and will be much better from the arc.

4. Wizards - Unlike Zoom I think this is the year the Wizards rise back to contention. I think Arenas will stay healhty and the additions of Mike Miller & Foye will be huge. Couple that with an improving JaVale McGee, Young, Haywood & Blatche and the Wizards are ready for a complete turnaround. What they should do is sign Raymond Felton. If they do that they are a lock for a top 5 seed even if Arenas goes down b/c Felton is an unselfish PG and Young/Miller/Butler/Jamison is enough offensive firepower for him to work with.

5. Cavs - I think Lebron and the Cavs did improve with Shaq but I don't think they were the true #1 team last year and their performance in the playoffs proved that. They'll be better but the top 4 are that much better when you consider who they added (assuming Arenas comes back healthy). And if the Turk move pays off I think the Raptors will edge the Cavs

6. Bulls - I rate them this high b/c they are my team and I'm always more optimistic than I should be. They are losing Gordon but I'm hoping that they'll show a defensive toughness that has been lacking since Skiles left town. If they don't, it could the the Bucks/Pacers/or Sixers and not the Bulls that make the playoffs.

7. Miami - Unless they add Iverson I think they'll be in the 6 or 7 spot or out of the playoffs altogether playing for a high lottery pick. Wade might decide to give up on the team and management for not adding any talent.

8. Atlanta - I think they take a mighty fall this year after Williams and Johnson likely get contract extensions. Will Crawford help or hinder? They're one injury away from having the Sixers/Bucks/Pacers/Bobcats pass them.

I'll fill in the West when I get more time but basically it goes

1. L.A.
2. San Antonio (they potentially could be #1 if they stay healthy and if Ron Ron goes back to being the Ron of old in L.A.)
3. Dallas
4. New Orleans
5. Portland
6. Denver
7. Utah
8. Oklahoma City/Clippers/Golden State


Breakout Candidates - Anthony Randolph, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Michael Beasley, Mike Conley, Thaddeus Young, Bargnani, Felton (if he ends up on a new team)
Sanitarium
just gonna put my playoff teams down:

EAST:
1. Magic - I'm not sure if they are planning on starting Pietrus at the 3 or not, but a line-up of Nelson/Carter/Pietrus/Lewis/Howard might be the best all-around team in the league outside of Boston. Assuming Nelson fully recovers from his injury and their bench can keep the ship afloat, I think this team has a very good shot at the #1 seed if everything works out.

2. Celtics - With Baldy McTechnical and Shelden Williams on board, this team is loaded with forwards. Even if KG goes down early I don't think they will miss a beat. The only thing I question is their guard depth. I think if they keep their geezers off of the trainers table and keep a tight leash on Rondo and Wallace, they will be up here come May.

3. Cavaliers - Without Lebron playing 45 minutes a game this team is a fringe playoff team... Their bench is slightly improved from last year by adding Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, but its still pretty terrible. I really hate putting them up here but adding Shaq was a good move.

4. Hawks - They are keeping their roster intact. Horford should get better but in my book Marvin Williams is still an underachiever. Jamal Crawford probably won't ruin what should be an easy run at this seed but this team doesn't make the conference finals. I think Jeff Teague will make a big impact coming off the bench.

5. Raptors - I think at this seed you are already entering 'best-of-the-worst' territory. Adding Jarret Jack I think will pay big dividends. He played pretty well on a terrible Pacers team last year and I wouldn't be suprised if he took a large chunk of minutes from Calderon. I think DeRozan is a bust. He's not a great shooter and he strikes me as somebody with attitude problems. Bargnani, Bosh, and Turkoglu will be this teams only offense unless someone else can step it up. Defense will be a question mark.

6. Heat - This team only goes as far as Wade takes them.

7. Bulls - We will be back, but at what strength i'm not sure. As long as we can win the games we are supposed to win we should be in.

8. I'm going to go with the nets here. I think the players they got in the VC trade will pay off. Alston coming off the bench and Lee starting at the 2 ahead of T. Williams. Along with Lopez this will probably be an exciting team to watch run by Devin Harris
ZoomSlowik
QUOTE (eddog2 @ Aug 10 2009, 04:55 PM) *
4. Wizards - Unlike Zoom I think this is the year the Wizards rise back to contention. I think Arenas will stay healhty and the additions of Mike Miller & Foye will be huge. Couple that with an improving JaVale McGee, Young, Haywood & Blatche and the Wizards are ready for a complete turnaround. What they should do is sign Raymond Felton. If they do that they are a lock for a top 5 seed even if Arenas goes down b/c Felton is an unselfish PG and Young/Miller/Butler/Jamison is enough offensive firepower for him to work with.


I just don't see how they got 25-30 games better, that's what it'd take to finish up there. 10-15 I can see, maybe even 20, but more than that is pushing it.

Did they improve their defense or size? Did they reduce their reliance on outside shooting? Did they add someone that'll actually pass the ball and get it to guys in the right spot at the right time? Absolutely not. Even when Arenas was healthy, they were a low-40 win team, and I don't see them being any better than that now even if things go right. Foye and Miller are both bench players that are basically useless when they aren't making shots. They've got a lot of guys that shoot jumpers and don't do a whole lot else.

I guess McGee and Blatche have some upside inside, but Blatche is very Tyrus-like with his basketball IQ and inconsistent effort and even if McGee doubles his numbers he's only okay.

I kind of doubt Arenas has the same impact he did before the surgeries, he was quite bad when he made his brief appearances . Even when he was healthy, he had serious drawbacks because of his defense and chucker tendencies. I think there's a better than average chance that he hurts more than he helps.

I like Butler and Jamison, but they really need someone that can drive at will at the point and/or a center that can defend and score inside at least a little. Without either of those players, I have a very hard time seeing them finish ahead of some of those teams, especially The Lebrons.
eddog2
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 10 2009, 09:15 PM) *
I just don't see how they got 25-30 games better, that's what it'd take to finish up there. 10-15 I can see, maybe even 20, but more than that is pushing it.

Did they improve their defense or size? Did they reduce their reliance on outside shooting? Did they add someone that'll actually pass the ball and get it to guys in the right spot at the right time? Absolutely not. Even when Arenas was healthy, they were a low-40 win team, and I don't see them being any better than that now even if things go right. Foye and Miller are both bench players that are basically useless when they aren't making shots. They've got a lot of guys that shoot jumpers and don't do a whole lot else.

I guess McGee and Blatche have some upside inside, but Blatche is very Tyrus-like with his basketball IQ and inconsistent effort and even if McGee doubles his numbers he's only okay.

I kind of doubt Arenas has the same impact he did before the surgeries, he was quite bad when he made his brief appearances . Even when he was healthy, he had serious drawbacks because of his defense and chucker tendencies. I think there's a better than average chance that he hurts more than he helps.

I like Butler and Jamison, but they really need someone that can drive at will at the point and/or a center that can defend and score inside at least a little. Without either of those players, I have a very hard time seeing them finish ahead of some of those teams, especially The Lebrons.


I'd argue they improved their defense and size by getting Haywood back healthy. Not to mention they will get to play a young exciting big that should be improved in JaVale McGee. McGee will be shot blocking force on D and his ability to run the floor and catch the lob will be displayed this year. I also think Blatche will have a bigger defensive role this year.

As for passing, all they need to do is have Gilbert average the same number of assists he did last year. 10.0apg. JK. smile.gif I think 7 is a realistic number for his seeing has how there are even more offensive options on the team. I think that they really should try and add someone like Felton but I’m sure they don’t want to go any higher over the cap.

If Javale doubles his numbers he'll have a really good year. Especially considering he'll be the backup. 12ppg, 7.8rpg, 2.0bpg .8 spg as a backup would be eligible for 6th man of the year. Anyway, I highly doubt those improvements on offense especially with the firepower on the team but I expect his rebounding and block numbers to go up.

I think Arenas just needs to have an average year. Something like 20ppg & 6apg on 44%+ shootingwill get them back to where they need to be. I agree with you that his chucker tendencies could cost them significantly but I think they've added enough talent and they have youngsters on the rise that will help mask that. Their bench is real deep and includes players that could start for a lot of teams.

Will will start at SG? Or will the Wizards run a PG out there with Arenas? Could a Foye/Arenas backcourt work? I'm thinking Miller will be starting and if that's the case they'll have great shooters at the corners while Butler and Arenas do their work.

Butler/Arenas/Miller are all above average passers so I have no worries about the ball not moving in that offense. Also a combo of Arenas/Miller/Butler/Jamison will be tough to guard from downtown. They are going to be a high scoring bunch this year. Even if Arenas goes down for the year I think they are a playoff team. Mike Miller had a bad year last year so the only way for him to go is up. Look for him to get back up to 14ppg and 40% from the arc.

They helped their cause in that regard by adding Miller and Foye (Foye is Arenas light). They have a great starting lineup and a much improved bench. Their bench likely will include:

JaVale - breakout candidate defensively. There are very few if any bigs in the league with his length, quickness, and general overall shot blocking explosiveness. If he spent the off-season in the weight room he'll be a much improved force on defense with his 7'6" reach. I still think he'll struggle offensively at times but he should get more consistent minutes b/c of his improved defense.

Foye - Not a great passer but he is another strong scoring option off the bench

Young - Had a good year last year and will likely improve on that

Stevenson - He has taken an unexpected step back the last two seasons but there is still potential for him to be a productive player off the bench this year. I guess there is also an outside chance that he'll start but I doubt that.

Dominic McGuire - Decent defender off the bench

Mike James - Another shooter off the bench

Javaris Crittenton - Is this the year he puts it together? Or will he be a lost soul on the bench?

Oberto - I consider him a slight upgrade to Songaila.

Blatche - He absolutely dominated the summer league which is a promising sign. He's still young (turns 23 this month) and still has a ton of potential. But really all he needs to do is slightly improve on his numbers from last year and he'll be a nice PF off the bench. Anything more than that will be a bonus.


I agree with you that their biggest weakness is PG. But I think some combination of Arenas/Foye/James/Crittenton when combined with Butler and Miller's passing and Miller and Jamison's shooting should be enough to get them a mid to high seed in the East. With that said, I think it is in their best interest to try and get Sessions or Felton. I think they should be calling the Bobcats non-stop to work out a sign and trade for Felton. You have to figure the Bobcats would pull the trigger for Mike James/McGuire and a future pick. But maybe their hope is to trade Felton at the deadline.

I'm saying it now, if the Wizards get Felton before the season they will be a top 3 team in the East. That's how underrated Felton is. An unselfish great passing guard like Felton is exactly what the Wizards need. They'd then have one of the best starting lineups and probably the best bench in the East (at least on paper). Will it happen? Probably not. But if it does watch out.

Felton/Foye
Arenas/Stevenson
Butler/Miller
Jamison/Blatche
Haywood/JaVale
eddog2
QUOTE (Sanitarium @ Aug 10 2009, 07:48 PM) *
just gonna put my playoff teams down:

8. I'm going to go with the nets here. I think the players they got in the VC trade will pay off. Alston coming off the bench and Lee starting at the 2 ahead of T. Williams. Along with Lopez this will probably be an exciting team to watch run by Devin Harris


Not a chance. They missed they playoffs by 5 games last year and got worse this year. No VC, no Anderson. All their hopes will be on youngsters that haven't figured out how to play individually or as a team. Couple that with that fact that a majority of the other teams in the east made moves that will make their teams better.

Of the non-playoff teams last year, the Wizards, Raptors, & Pacers should all be significantly better and I don't think we can rule the Bobcats out since they are coached by Brown. I know you are high on the Nets young talent but even if they materialize it will take at least another year.
eddog2
I hate the Spurs but I agree with Zoom that they could be #1 in the West when it's all said and done. It will be interesting to see if Manu gets to start this year of if he will continue to be used as a 6th man. I'm guessing Mason will start. This starting lineup will be very good on both ends of the court.

Duncan
McDyess (I wonder if Blair will earn the starting spot by the end of the year)
Jefferson
Mason
Parker

The Spurs added to both their starting lineup with McDyess & Jefferson and their bench strength with Ratliff/Blair. I really think Hill will have an increased role off the bench this year. Obviously Manu is the key to their team. He proved that they just don't function as well without him. If he's back healthy watch out.

Ratliff/Bonner/Mahinmi (it will be interesting to see how Mahinmi adapts to the NBA)
Blair (At 48mpg in SL he would be at 31.4ppg & 16.6rpg. Proving he doesn't need big minutes to be productive)
Finley? (I'm not really sure who will fill the backup SF role. Will Udoka be back?)
Manu
Hill
Sanitarium
QUOTE (eddog2 @ Aug 11 2009, 09:47 AM) *
Not a chance. They missed they playoffs by 5 games last year and got worse this year. No VC, no Anderson. All their hopes will be on youngsters that haven't figured out how to play individually or as a team. Couple that with that fact that a majority of the other teams in the east made moves that will make their teams better.

Of the non-playoff teams last year, the Wizards, Raptors, & Pacers should all be significantly better and I don't think we can rule the Bobcats out since they are coached by Brown. I know you are high on the Nets young talent but even if they materialize it will take at least another year.


I don't think the bobcats are a playoff team. The wizards might be a good choice if they have a healthy Arenas all season long. Even if Brand is a monster this season without a PG and having an inconsistent Iguodala switching between the 2 and 3 i don't think the 76ers will be back in the playoffs this year. The pacers need another scorer to go with Granger's 25 a game.
ZoomSlowik
QUOTE (eddog2 @ Aug 11 2009, 08:47 AM) *
Of the non-playoff teams last year, the Wizards, Raptors, & Pacers should all be significantly better and I don't think we can rule the Bobcats out since they are coached by Brown.


How exactly are the Pacers going to be significantly better? Are you assuming a healthy Dunleavy and Hansbrough being good in that assumption? Or are you including leaps forward for Hibbert and/or Rush?

Dunleavy will help, but most of that will be negated by losing Jack and Daniels, both of which played fairly major roles last year. I can't see their role players making huge strides either, Hibbert is too unathletic and Rush is too jumper happy. I think Hansbrough will be decent, but no more than a good bench player/slightly below average starter.

Overall I see them winning a hair fewer games than they won year, which was 36. They have very little depth and any injuries to their key guys would be a killer. Considering that Ford is one of the more injury prone guys out there and Dunleavy is coming off a major knee injury, that's a definite concern.
Sanitarium
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 11 2009, 03:00 PM) *
How exactly are the Pacers going to be significantly better? Are you assuming a healthy Dunleavy and Hansbrough being good in that assumption? Or are you including leaps forward for Hibbert and/or Rush?

Dunleavy will help, but most of that will be negated by losing Jack and Daniels, both of which played fairly major roles last year. I can't see their role players making huge strides either, Hibbert is too unathletic and Rush is too jumper happy. I think Hansbrough will be decent, but no more than a good bench player/slightly below average starter.

Overall I see them winning a hair fewer games than they won year, which was 36. They have very little depth and any injuries to their key guys would be a killer. Considering that Ford is one of the more injury prone guys out there and Dunleavy is coming off a major knee injury, that's a definite concern.


Yeah I agree. They would need rush to become much more dominant and for Hibbert to not instantly foul out the second he gets on the floor.

If those two things change and Dunleavy can stay healthy maybe they can win 40 games... but I doubt it. Once TJ Ford's legs shatter again they won't have anyone to play the point.
eddog2
QUOTE (Sanitarium @ Aug 11 2009, 12:30 PM) *
I don't think the bobcats are a playoff team. The wizards might be a good choice if they have a healthy Arenas all season long. Even if Brand is a monster this season without a PG and having an inconsistent Iguodala switching between the 2 and 3 i don't think the 76ers will be back in the playoffs this year. The pacers need another scorer to go with Granger's 25 a game.


Mike Dunleavy should be back so that should be enough scoring to help them improve. But I think their biggest improvement will be from Tyler Hansbrough and the hustle mentality he brings to the team. He might not have the best statistical rookie campaign but I think his presence will be felt in the W column. I also think Hibbert will be much improved this year.

Hibbert
Murphy
Dunleavy
Granger
Ford

or

Murphy
Tyler
Dunleavy
Granger
Ford

Either way those are very good well rounded starting lineups. I think they will miss Jack off the bench but Watson plugs most of that gap.

As for the Bobcats you are probably right. I'm not sure how trading Okafor for Chandler is going to work out. I think it is critical that they keep Felton. Also, I'm not sure how Ajinca is coming along if he's coming along rather quickly it could be one of the reasons they traded Okafor. Maybe they want to give Ajinca increased playing time this year and keep Chandler under 30mpg so that he stays fresh and healthy. It's probably not likely but you never know. Or they could be planning to use Diop more this year. I'm not sold on Henderson but he might be able to earn the starting spot. If not, he'll be a big upgrade to their bench.

This starting lineup should be pretty good.
Chandler
Diaw
Wallace
Bell/Henderson
Felton/Augustin

If they can keep Felton they'll be able to use Augustin in a big role off the bench. I think DJ will an improved player this year. Looking at their lineup they definitely have toughness. Bell/Henderson/Wallace/&Chandler are all above average defenders. Okafor may be a better player than Tyson but Tyson could prove to be a better fit for the up-tempo game that would work nicely with players such as Wallace/Diaw/Felton/Augustin/Henderson/Ajinca.

Also, do you have no faith in BG and the Pistons? They still have plenty of talent to make a playoff push. The more I look at their roster the more I want to replace my playoff predicitons. They could be a very dangerous middle of the pack team. A top 6 seed is not out of the questions. If they can get the team to buy in defensively they could be on the verge of a quick rebuilding effort (though I think they are a superstar player away. Anybody interested in trading one of those for Prince/Hamilton? Is a T-Mac risk worth giving up Hamilton? If it pays off the Pistons could be a top 5 team that is extremely dangerous in the playoffs. I've long thought that T-Mac and Gordon should play together).

Wilcox/Wallace/Brown
Charlie V./Maxiell
Prince/Summers/Daye
Hamilton/BG
Stuckey/Bynum

Imagine how the team would look if they were successful in trading Hamilton & Kwame for T-Mac (assuming T-Mac stayed healthy).

Wilcox/Wallace
Charlie V./Maxiell
Prince/Daye
T-Mac/Stuckey
BG/Bynum

I think this is the type of team that would allow T-Mac to thrive. A BG/T-Mac combo would be sick since T-Mac does most of the ball handling. No defense would be able to guard both of them. T-Mac is an excellent passer that creates shots for everyone. He could lob the ball to Wilcox every now and then or hit Charlie V. in the corner for easy shots. And Prince could continue to post up smaller defenders and throw that ugly hook shot up. I think the team would be very dangerous.
ZoomSlowik
McGrady wouldn't solve anything for the Pistons, especially with the dreaded "no timetable for return" tag from his knee surgery. They don't need another low-percentage/high volume jumpshooter with inconsistent defensive effort, they need a Boozer-type player that can get them 18-10 with a good shooting percentage. Actually, ideally they need someone a bit better defensively than that. The only real benefit from that would be cap relief going into next year.

Villanueva is going to kill them between his lackluster defense and rebounding and his low efficiency jumper-happy offensive game, especially since that's the bread and butter for Gordon, Hamilton and Prince as well. Every decent scorer they have will probably shoot 45% at best, only one of them hits 3's at a good clip and none of them draw a high number of free throws. That will likely make it hard for them to finish over .500 without some amazing D (which seems equally unlikely).
Sanitarium
I don't think it's impossible for the division to go

Cavs
Bulls
Bucks
Pistons
Pacers

Detroit is just a mess right now. I wanted to say a big mess, but they are too undersized to even say that lol
ZoomSlowik
QUOTE (Sanitarium @ Aug 11 2009, 03:22 PM) *
I don't think it's impossible for the division to go

Cavs
Bulls
Bucks
Pistons
Pacers

Detroit is just a mess right now. I wanted to say a big mess, but they are too undersized to even say that lol


I still think it'd be hard for them to be worse than Milwaukee, especially if Redd and/or Bogut gets hurt again. Everyone else on that roster (outside of Sessions who hasn't signed yet) is unproven and/or bad thanks to all of their cost-cutting.
eddog2
Zoom, I agree with you about Charlie V. I've never really been a fan of his. I wouldn't be shocked if they went with a Wallace/Wilcox starting frontcourt after the first couple of weeks of the season. That frontcourt would for sure be better defensively and it would allow Charlie V. to be a spark off the bench which is basically what he did for half the season last year. Wilcox is quick enough and is a decent enough post player to have some success at the 4. And him and Wallace should be able to do an adequate job on the boards.

Anyway, I don't think they are as disfunctional as you or everyone wants to claim they are. They have talented players throughout the lineup. Defensively they have Prince/Hamilton/& Wallace who are all above average defenders. And are a more well rounded scoring team than we are. Wilcox is a better post scorer than anyone on our team. BG was our best shooter. Prince and Hamilton both score in different ways. I'd say that Prince is also a better man to man defender than anyone on our team. What they are really missing is a true PG and maybe one more big (though I don't think Boozer is that big). But even without those parts I think they will have a respectable year and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished anywhere from 5-8 in the East. BG will prove his worth in Detroit.

Wallace/Brown
Wilcox/Charlie V.
Prince
Hamilton
Stuckey/BG
ZoomSlowik
I seriously doubt they bench Villanueva given the contract that they just gave him. Wallace probably won't be useful for more than 5 minute bursts or so at his age, because of that he's probably a bench player.

Also, Wilcox is not better than anything the Bulls have. He is a pretty good finisher but has no post moves or shooting range at all, he only hit like 30% of his shots outside the immediate basket area and like 3/4 of his inside shots were assisted. They don't have anyone that you can definitively call even an average big man when you factor in all of their abilities. At least the Bulls are semi-competent inside between Noah, Thomas and Miller, especially on defense. That's more than you can say for Villanueva and Wilcox.

They have three decent to good wing players, that's the only real plus with their team. They ALL rely extremely heavily on their jumpshot. 85% of Hamilton's shots are jumpers, 80% of Gordon's shots are jumpers and Prince gets 50% of his shots on 2-point jumpers and only hits 36% of them (he's a better finisher than I thought but not amazing).

You win in the NBA because of your top-3 players, and Detroit's top three is Gordon/Hamilton/Prince. That's not getting you anywhere. At least the Bulls have Rose, the only guy that is a star-level player on either team. Hamilton and Prince aren't exactly light years better than Deng and Salmons either, while Thomas and Noah have considerably more upside than the Pistons' frontcourt.

It's not impossible for the Bulls to finish below Detroit or for the Pistons to make the playoffs, but the odds aren't in favor of it.
eddog2
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 11 2009, 07:13 PM) *
I seriously doubt they bench Villanueva given the contract that they just gave him. Wallace probably won't be useful for more than 5 minute bursts or so at his age, because of that he's probably a bench player.

Also, Wilcox is not better than anything the Bulls have. He is a pretty good finisher but has no post moves or shooting range at all, he only hit like 30% of his shots outside the immediate basket area and like 3/4 of his inside shots were assisted. They don't have anyone that you can definitively call even an average big man when you factor in all of their abilities. At least the Bulls are semi-competent inside between Noah, Thomas and Miller, especially on defense. That's more than you can say for Villanueva and Wilcox.

They have three decent to good wing players, that's the only real plus with their team. They ALL rely extremely heavily on their jumpshot. 85% of Hamilton's shots are jumpers, 80% of Gordon's shots are jumpers and Prince gets 50% of his shots on 2-point jumpers and only hits 36% of them (he's a better finisher than I thought but not amazing).

You win in the NBA because of your top-3 players, and Detroit's top three is Gordon/Hamilton/Prince. That's not getting you anywhere. At least the Bulls have Rose, the only guy that is a star-level player on either team. Hamilton and Prince aren't exactly light years better than Deng and Salmons either, while Thomas and Noah have considerably more upside than the Pistons' frontcourt.

It's not impossible for the Bulls to finish below Detroit or for the Pistons to make the playoffs, but the odds aren't in favor of it.


Wilcox is a better finisher than anybody on our team. Sure his stats from last year don't indicate that but other than the occasional Tyrus dunk, Tyrus isn't nearly as coordinated down low. Wilcox occasionally does get the ball drop in and he can hit a soft hook shot every now and then. Sure he's never demanded the ball in the post but he's definately more capable of scoring with his back to the basket than Miller/Noah/or Tyrus. Noah shot a higher % but that's because almost of all his shots are uncontested. Event he ones he makes are real ugly.

You are correct when you say our guys are better defensively and that Rose is a major difference. That is true but I'm still not sold on him being as effective as the #1 option. I think him playing with BG created a lot of holes to penetrate that likely won't be there this season. Meanwhile, playing with BG should make Prince/Hamilton/& Charlie V. better. Prince is pretty effective in the post when he has a smaller defender. I think that having BG there will reduce the likelihood of a double team which will allow Prince to either hit the baby hook or find an open Rip who will be cutting like always.

Anyway, I think Hamilton/Prince/B.G. is a good problem to have. I don't think there is a coach in the league that wouldn't be interested in having that problem (if cap issues were not of concern). If Deng does not come back fully healthy, I'd argue that those 3 are better than our top 3. (Hamilton > Salmons, Prince >Deng, Rose > BG overall but not scoring). How is that not a good top 3? It's not Sheed/Hamilton/Billups that won the title or Hamilton/Prince/Billups but it's still very formidable.

On a side note, do you know that Prince has played in 492 straight games. That's pretty good. B.G. has only missed 12 games in 5 seasons while Hamilton has missed 39. Meanwhile Deng has missed 77 games in 5 years. That's the difference between our top 3 and theirs. Deng has missed 26 more games than their top 3 combined over the past 5 years.
ZoomSlowik
I think you really overestimate Prince's abilities. He has talent and makes few mistakes, but he has never scored 15 points in a season despite regularly taking 12-13 shots a year. That's not a very good scoring rate. Even in a down year last season Deng was about as productive as Prince usually is, if he's healthy he has more upside as an offensive player and is nearly as effective defensively.

Salmons also had a hell of a year last season, he shot almost 48% from the floor and over 40% from the arc. I realize that was his career year by a good margin, but if he's even close to that he's better than Hamilton or Prince and a reasonable replacement for Gordon, especially since he's a solid defender.

Gordon is better than either of those wing players, but again, I think you overestimate how big of an impact he has on the rest of the team. If he really makes everyone around him better, then Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas must REALLY suck. He's not a guy that draws entire defenses to him, he's a guy that can usually be covered with one player and does most of his damage on long jumpers. It's not like Detroit has the drivers or post players to take advantage of guys having to stay with him outside.

I realize there are an awful lot of ifs with the Bulls, but even if Salmons regresses to a low double figures scorers, Deng plays 50 or 60 games again and Tyrus, Noah and Rose make zero progress Detroit still doesn't exactly blow them out of the water.

You could make a very strong case that the Bulls are better at every spot in the lineup except for shooting guard, that's why they have a much better chance of making the playoffs. Barring someone like Stuckey or Maxiell making a massive leap, they're a very average team. That's basically what the Bulls are, but there is are more reasons to expect the Bulls to be a bit better than that.

eddog2
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 12 2009, 01:16 AM) *
I think you really overestimate Prince's abilities. He has talent and makes few mistakes, but he has never scored 15 points in a season despite regularly taking 12-13 shots a year. That's not a very good scoring rate. Even in a down year last season Deng was about as productive as Prince usually is, if he's healthy he has more upside as an offensive player and is nearly as effective defensively.

Salmons also had a hell of a year last season, he shot almost 48% from the floor and over 40% from the arc. I realize that was his career year by a good margin, but if he's even close to that he's better than Hamilton or Prince and a reasonable replacement for Gordon, especially since he's a solid defender.

Gordon is better than either of those wing players, but again, I think you overestimate how big of an impact he has on the rest of the team. If he really makes everyone around him better, then Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas must REALLY suck. He's not a guy that draws entire defenses to him, he's a guy that can usually be covered with one player and does most of his damage on long jumpers. It's not like Detroit has the drivers or post players to take advantage of guys having to stay with him outside.

I realize there are an awful lot of ifs with the Bulls, but even if Salmons regresses to a low double figures scorers, Deng plays 50 or 60 games again and Tyrus, Noah and Rose make zero progress Detroit still doesn't exactly blow them out of the water.

You could make a very strong case that the Bulls are better at every spot in the lineup except for shooting guard, that's why they have a much better chance of making the playoffs. Barring someone like Stuckey or Maxiell making a massive leap, they're a very average team. That's basically what the Bulls are, but there is are more reasons to expect the Bulls to be a bit better than that.


Let's not get carried away with the Salmons anointing. The guy had 1 very good year. That does not justify you saying he's better than Hamilton who is a three time all-star. Sure his numbers last year were good but let him do that without Gordon this year before we anoint him as being such as great player. As for Prince, he's a very good all around player. I never said he was a great scorer. I just said that with Gordon he'll be able to use his height more effectively b/c he probably won't get doubled when he posts up smaller defenders. Not sure if you have ever watched him play but he does a great job defensively and has a very nice hook shoot in the post (though he's as skinny as a rail). I believe he's an all-around better player than Deng (but Deng has more potential for improvement).

I'm not worried about the Pistons scoring. B.G./Hamilton/Prince/Charlie V. will provide a bulk of the scoring and Bynum/Stuckey/Wilcox can provide the rest. It might come down to defense this year for the Pistons but I am just making the point that I think they could be better than everyone expects. We'll just have to wait and see. And it's still not too late for RIP to be traded.
ZoomSlowik
If you read what I wrote more closely, there was clearly a qualifying "if" in there. I realize that Salmons is no lock to be that good again. Playing with Rose will give him every opportunity to reproduce that season, Derrick actually is the type of player that can draw entire defenses to him with his penetration. Plus who knows when Hamilton starts to decline a bit, he had his worst year from the field last year in several seasons.
eddog2
Back to the Wizards. Maybe this will help some of you jump on the bandwagon. Is Gilbert set to make a Wade "light" type comeback following two injury plagued seasons? If so, I think top 4 in the east is for sure a possiblity.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4394425

http://washingtontimes.com/weblogs/outlet/.../arenas-update/
ZoomSlowik
QUOTE
"There's no question, a player of his talent, when he's playing, he puts us from a team that's competing for the playoffs to a team that's an elite team in the playoffs. When you walk in the gym right now, you wouldn't think that he's hurt," Saunders said.


This quote right here is the big problem. The Wizards weren't a playoff team last year, in fact they weren't remotely close to the playoffs. Even if you say that Arenas makes them 15 games better, which is pretty generous considering Dwyane Wade "only" had 14.4 win shares last year, they'd have to make up another 7 wins just to get to .500, and another 5-10 to get homecourt in the first round. If he's even remotely off, they're still stuck in the 30's for wins.
Balta1701-B
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 12 2009, 05:13 PM) *
This quote right here is the big problem. The Wizards weren't a playoff team last year, in fact they weren't remotely close to the playoffs. Even if you say that Arenas makes them 15 games better, which is pretty generous considering Dwyane Wade "only" had 14.4 win shares last year, they'd have to make up another 7 wins just to get to .500, and another 5-10 to get homecourt in the first round. If he's even remotely off, they're still stuck in the 30's for wins.

So that Miami team last year without Wade was a 36-46 team and was about as good as the Pacers? I'm not sure I buy that.
ZoomSlowik
QUOTE (Balta1701-B @ Aug 12 2009, 08:16 PM) *
So that Miami team last year without Wade was a 36-46 team and was about as good as the Pacers? I'm not sure I buy that.


As I kind of implied in that post, in the NBA one win share= 1 win (at least using this system). So 43-14=29 which is maybe a bit high but still gets across the general point that Wade single handedly takes them from quite bad to the #5 seed.
Sanitarium
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 12 2009, 10:29 PM) *
As I kind of implied in that post, in the NBA one win share= 1 win (at least using this system). So 43-14=29 which is maybe a bit high but still gets across the general point that Wade single handedly takes them from quite bad to the #5 seed.


I have no problem believing that.

Their roster outside of Beasley just isn't very impressive at all.
eddog2
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 12 2009, 09:29 PM) *
As I kind of implied in that post, in the NBA one win share= 1 win (at least using this system). So 43-14=29 which is maybe a bit high but still gets across the general point that Wade single handedly takes them from quite bad to the #5 seed.


If Wade can single handedly take the worst team in the league to the 5th seed in one season I have no doubt that a fully healthy Arenas when combined with off-season acquisitions of Miller & Foye and a roster with two all-star caliber players (Butler & Jamison) should be able to do at least that much. I'm thinking 5th is about as low as they finish. Washington wasn't the worst team last year. They just gave up toward the 2nd half of the year (and basically all year) b/c they knew Arenas wasn't coming back. He's the leader of their team and it was a big blow mentally once he went down.

So they played for a high draft pick. When the ping pong balls didn't go their way, they did the right thing and traded the pick for talent that would make them a better team. Would Johnny Flynn have been better? Possibly. But by adding Mike Miller (a proven shooter) and Randy Foye (a very capable scorer off the bench) the Wizards decided they would do everything in their power to win now. I am confident that their decision will pay off next year in the form of a high seed and possible deep playoff run.
ZoomSlowik
QUOTE (eddog2 @ Aug 13 2009, 09:18 AM) *
If Wade can single handedly take the worst team in the league to the 5th seed in one season I have no doubt that a fully healthy Arenas when combined with off-season acquisitions of Miller & Foye and a roster with two all-star caliber players (Butler & Jamison) should be able to do at least that much. I'm thinking 5th is about as low as they finish. Washington wasn't the worst team last year. They just gave up toward the 2nd half of the year (and basically all year) b/c they knew Arenas wasn't coming back. He's the leader of their team and it was a big blow mentally once he went down.

So they played for a high draft pick. When the ping pong balls didn't go their way, they did the right thing and traded the pick for talent that would make them a better team. Would Johnny Flynn have been better? Possibly. But by adding Mike Miller (a proven shooter) and Randy Foye (a very capable scorer off the bench) the Wizards decided they would do everything in their power to win now. I am confident that their decision will pay off next year in the form of a high seed and possible deep playoff run.


There are several problems with that:

-Dwayne Wade is a better player than Arenas. That even includes the assumption that he gets back to his 28 PPG peak, if he doesn't the gap between the two is quite a bit bigger.

-Even with a healthy Arenas and those two fringe-type All-Stars, Washington hasn't won more than 43 games with that core.

-You keep touting the Miller and Foye acquisitions like that's 10 wins added. Both are role players that made little impact in Minnesota and will likely see reduced minutes in Washington. That will also mean reduced minutes for Nick Young and DeShawn Stevenson thanks to the cluster-fish they have on the perimeter.

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Foye had either no impact or a negative impact, he's used to firing at will on an awful team and does basically nothing but score. How useful is that on a team that already has Jamison, Butler and possibly a healthy Arenas?

-They absolutely were the worst team in the east last year and they played like it. Jamison and Butler weren't significantly worse than normal and all of these role players that are supposed to give them great depth this year generally sucked. Darius Songalia was third on the team with 2.4 win shares, that's pathetic.

Butler and Jamison are solid, but not the kind of players that can carry a team. Given the defensive deficiencies of the team they need Arenas to be their best player by a decent margin to be even remotely successful, and that's still not a given.

There's a chance that they have a good season, but they are FAR from a lock to make the leap from worst team in the east to even the playoffs, much less a top-5 seed. They didn't exactly add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and get Paul Pierce back from injury like the Celtics did.

If we are making the assumption that Arenas is 100% healthy I'd probably bump them up to #7, but for now there's still a distinct possibility that he pull an Elton Brand and sucks in brief returns like he did the last two years. I have a hard time seeing them be a whole lot better than that.
eddog2
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 13 2009, 10:54 AM) *
There are several problems with that:

-Dwayne Wade is a better player than Arenas. That even includes the assumption that he gets back to his 28 PPG peak, if he doesn't the gap between the two is quite a bit bigger.

-Even with a healthy Arenas and those two fringe-type All-Stars, Washington hasn't won more than 43 games with that core.

-You keep touting the Miller and Foye acquisitions like that's 10 wins added. Both are role players that made little impact in Minnesota and will likely see reduced minutes in Washington. That will also mean reduced minutes for Nick Young and DeShawn Stevenson thanks to the cluster-fish they have on the perimeter.

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Foye had either no impact or a negative impact, he's used to firing at will on an awful team and does basically nothing but score. How useful is that on a team that already has Jamison, Butler and possibly a healthy Arenas?

-They absolutely were the worst team in the east last year and they played like it. Jamison and Butler weren't significantly worse than normal and all of these role players that are supposed to give them great depth this year generally sucked. Darius Songalia was third on the team with 2.4 win shares, that's pathetic.

Butler and Jamison are solid, but not the kind of players that can carry a team. Given the defensive deficiencies of the team they need Arenas to be their best player by a decent margin to be even remotely successful, and that's still not a given.

There's a chance that they have a good season, but they are FAR from a lock to make the leap from worst team in the east to even the playoffs, much less a top-5 seed. They didn't exactly add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and get Paul Pierce back from injury like the Celtics did.

If we are making the assumption that Arenas is 100% healthy I'd probably bump them up to #7, but for now there's still a distinct possibility that he pull an Elton Brand and sucks in brief returns like he did the last two years. I have a hard time seeing them be a whole lot better than that.


I never said Arenas was going to be as good as Wade. That's why I called him Wade "light". Anyway, if he comes back fully healthy he has much more to work with than Wade had in Miami. Haywood/McGee with Jamison at PF is much better than JO/Haslem. They have youth and an abundance of scoring. And adding Mike Miller (who you call a fringe player) to improve their outside shooting was a great addition. Their bench this year will be much better at scoring the ball.

As for Foye I somewhat agree with you. But I think he's underrated. Him being the 4th, 5th, or 6th option on offense should open him up for easy looks. Same for Miller. When you start getting better looks you typically shoot better from the field. I also think Foye could excel in the 2nd unit in a 6th man role.

However, if the Wizards are smart they'll try and pull a sign and trade for Felton and move one of their SG's. I think moving Young would be the best move. All he does is score like you said. That would allow Gilbert to move to the SG spot and then the 2nd unit would be Foye/Stevenson/Miller/Blatche/McGee. That's a big improvement over what they had last year. Foye & Miller essentially are both better than any scorers they had off the bench last year.

Anyway, what the Wizards did by getting Miller & Foye is increase their options and the talent on their team. Even without any other trades and if Gilbert stayed hurt they'd be a better team by getting both of them and Haywood back. You seem to be ignoring the fact that Haywood was their best big man and he missed most of the year. Add in a healhty Arenas and that will produce W's. Their deep team will allow them to make moves at the deadline to obtain what they feel they are lacking but even with no moves they will be night and day from last year.

Anyway, you know I love going back and forth on issues with you. We are not going to agree on this so lets agree to disagree and when the Wizards finish higher than 7th you can tell me how right I was.
ZoomSlowik
It's probably not a good sign when even after attributing 12-15 wins to a healthy Arenas that your big hopes for adding the other 10+ wins are a guy that had 10-7 averages even in his best year, a good jumpshooting foward that can't defend, especially at the 2 (which is a problem since Butler is entrenched at the 3), and another streaky combo guard that may/may not fit the roster. As I've said before, even when all of their big three were healthy they couldn't win 45. That's the last I'll say about it.
Sanitarium
I'm gonna side with Zoom on this one
eddog2
QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ Aug 13 2009, 08:23 PM) *
It's probably not a good sign when even after attributing 12-15 wins to a healthy Arenas that your big hopes for adding the other 10+ wins are a guy that had 10-7 averages even in his best year, a good jumpshooting foward that can't defend, especially at the 2 (which is a problem since Butler is entrenched at the 3), and another streaky combo guard that may/may not fit the roster. As I've said before, even when all of their big three were healthy they couldn't win 45. That's the last I'll say about it.


Experience in 05/06 Age in 05/06
Gilbert Arenas 4 25 This was the 1st year the big 3 played together
Caron Butler 3 26 This was the 1st year the big 3 played together
Antawn Jamison 7 30 This was the 1st year the big 3 played together
Antonio Daniels 8 31 No longer with the club. Foye is a better scorer & Mike James is a decent PG option.
Brendan Haywood 4 27 Decent center
Chucky Atkins 6 32 Decent PG
Jarvis Hayes 2 25 Decent reserve SG
Etan Thomas 4 28 Decent center
Andray Blatche R 20 Too young to make an impact
Calvin Booth 6 30 Blah
Jared Jeffries 3 25 Blah
Michael Ruffin 5 30 Blah
Awvee Storey 1 29 Blah
Donell Taylor R 24 Blah
Billy Thomas 1 31 Blah

Weaknesses
*No true three point specialist. Weak bench with no true bench scorers. Was also the 1st year the big 3 played together.

Experience in 09/10 Age in 09/10
Gilbert Arenas 7 28 All indications are his leg has healed. He's still in his prime.
Caron Butler 6 29 He's a better player now after having to be the man for two years while Gilbert was down.
Antawn Jamison 10 33 He really hasn't slowed down. His statistics last year were similar and he shot a better %.
Brendan Haywood 7 30 His game has slightly improved since 2005.
Mike Miller 10 29 Experienced SG starter or off the bench as a 6th man. Gives the team a much needed 3-point specialist
Randy Foye 4 26 Yet another upgrade to the bench. I'd take him over Hayes/Daniels/or Atkins
Javale McGee 2 21 Coming off a solid rookie year. Tons of upside and he adds an athletic dynamic that was missing
Andray Blatche 4 23 Entering his 5th year he's a much better player capable of having an impact on the defensive end.
Nick Young 3 24 Another scorer off the bench that is looking to have an even better 3rd year
Deshawn Stevenson 10 28 Had a bad year but is a solid SG option off the bench if he can bounce back
Dominic McGuire 3 24 Solid defender off the bench.
Mike James 9 34 Blah. Solid veteran PG but probably won't play many minutes
Fabricio Oberto 5 34 Blah. Solid veteran PF but probably won't play many minutes
Javaris Crittenton 3 32 Blah so far in his career but he could log some minutes at PG

*Blatche and McGee essentially will replace/exceed the production Thomas provided in 05/06 (McGee is the wild card b/c he could have a nice 2nd year). They added Miller who is their best outside threat in years. They also have way more scoring off the bench plus have a lineup that is filled with players could be much improved over last year. Combine that with the fact that only 3 players on their roster are truly "blah" players and they have the potential to be much improved.





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