Ok, so I'm keeping tabs on our chances with the Knickerbockers pick in the "Bottom Dwellers" thread, I think it's also useful to keep an eye on the 2nd pick we have, which also has the potential to be a pretty good number. This thread will follow that pick
Right now, if the season ended today, the Bulls would have the 10th pick (all of these assume no one moves up behind us).
However, Boston right now is tied with us in the win column, but they've lost 1 more game than us. 1 more loss by the Bulls could push us into a tie for the 9th slot.
We're also exactly 1 game ahead of Minnesota, and 1.5 games ahead of Seattle. So the Bulls still have an outside shot at the 7th pick, if a few other teams have decent runs.
On the other side, Golden State, by virtue of their win over the Mavs last night, has tied us in the win column, but has 1 less loss than us. An additional loss by them could push the Bulls back into the 11th spot. Houston has 1 more win than us, and the same number of losses, and they currently sit 12th.
I don't like the idea of tanking (except when we face the Bobcats...I want Luke playing 48 minutes in that game), but it's at least worth noting that we could wind up with that 2nd draft pick falling reasonably anywhere from 7 to 12 right now, and the difference is only 2 games between the 2 end members.
Full Version: Tracking the 2nd pick
So, after a weekend that actually looked pretty good for the Bulls...Right now the Bulls are tied with the Warriors (with the Bulls havign played 2 more games) for the 11th/12 spots. We've moved 1 game ahead of the Rockets and 2 games ahead of the T-Wolves.
We are a game and a half behind Philly and Utah, who are tied.
We are a game and a half behind Philly and Utah, who are tied.
The Bulls always get shafted in the Lottery it seams...so even if the Knicks have
the worst record the pick will probably draw as 4 in the lottery.
the worst record the pick will probably draw as 4 in the lottery.
If the Knicks are the worse team in the league, the nice part is that 4th is the worse we can do and we should have a shot at LSU's bigs/Aldridge/Florida's guys. Which will be solid and I actually think there will be a lot of quality guys available with our 2nd pick as well.
QUOTE
Seed # Number of combinations Probability % of Receiving
First Pick Second Pick Third Pick A top-2 Pick A top-3 Pick
1 250 25.00 21.55 17.85 46.55 64.40
2 200 20.00 18.91 17.22 38.91 56.13
3 157 15.70 15.84 15.70 31.54 47.25
4 120 12.00 12.71 13.43 24.71 38.14
5 89 8.90 9.77 10.82 18.67 29.49
6 64 6.40 7.21 8.26 13.61 21.87
7 44 4.40 5.06 5.93 9.46 15.39
8 29 2.90 3.38 4.03 6.28 10.31
9 18 1.80 2.12 2.56 3.92 6.48
10 11 1.10 1.30 1.58 2.40 3.99
11 7 0.70 0.83 1.02 1.53 2.55
12 6 0.60 0.71 0.87 1.31 2.19
13 5 0.50 0.60 0.73 1.10 1.82
Link for those who are interested
First Pick Second Pick Third Pick A top-2 Pick A top-3 Pick
1 250 25.00 21.55 17.85 46.55 64.40
2 200 20.00 18.91 17.22 38.91 56.13
3 157 15.70 15.84 15.70 31.54 47.25
4 120 12.00 12.71 13.43 24.71 38.14
5 89 8.90 9.77 10.82 18.67 29.49
6 64 6.40 7.21 8.26 13.61 21.87
7 44 4.40 5.06 5.93 9.46 15.39
8 29 2.90 3.38 4.03 6.28 10.31
9 18 1.80 2.12 2.56 3.92 6.48
10 11 1.10 1.30 1.58 2.40 3.99
11 7 0.70 0.83 1.02 1.53 2.55
12 6 0.60 0.71 0.87 1.31 2.19
13 5 0.50 0.60 0.73 1.10 1.82
So before the Celtics game tonight...the Bulls and Rockets are currently both knotted up at exactly 32-40 and tied for the 11th/12th spots. There are 3 teams, Boston, Golden State, and Minnesota, who are sitting on 30 wins.
Seattle and Orlando are sitting at 29 wins.
So, if the Bulls don't win tonight, it will bring the Celtics within 1 game of the Bulls in the win column.
Seattle and Orlando are sitting at 29 wins.
So, if the Bulls don't win tonight, it will bring the Celtics within 1 game of the Bulls in the win column.
So, right now, the Bulls are sitting 12th. They're 1 win behind the 76ers, and 2 wins in front of Seattle, Orlando, and Houston. Houston without Yao is probably not going to win 2 more. Orlando and Seattle both have winning records in their last 10 and have people playing fairly well. Right now, the Bulls will probably fall somewhere between 10th and 12th if they cannot catch Philly.
QUOTE (Balta1701-B @ Apr 11 2006, 04:37 PM)
So, right now, the Bulls are sitting 12th. They're 1 win behind the 76ers, and 2 wins in front of Seattle, Orlando, and Houston. Houston without Yao is probably not going to win 2 more. Orlando and Seattle both have winning records in their last 10 and have people playing fairly well. Right now, the Bulls will probably fall somewhere between 10th and 12th if they cannot catch Philly.
There's a draft lottery.
I remember back in the 90's the Magic got the top pick despite having the worst odds.
Maybe we will get some luck finally...since we have been cursed so much in recent years.
QUOTE (Balta1701-B @ Apr 11 2006, 04:37 PM)
So, right now, the Bulls are sitting 12th. They're 1 win behind the 76ers, and 2 wins in front of Seattle, Orlando, and Houston. Houston without Yao is probably not going to win 2 more. Orlando and Seattle both have winning records in their last 10 and have people playing fairly well. Right now, the Bulls will probably fall somewhere between 10th and 12th if they cannot catch Philly.
i do not think that we will get another lottery pick in the draft this year because they have beat the nets and the hawks what will stop them now. and for the draft i hope that they get Roy but that will not happen so i am going for one of the two brewers.
QUOTE (bulls91 @ Apr 12 2006, 06:00 PM)
i do not think that we will get another lottery pick in the draft this year because [b] they have beat the nets and the hawks what will stop them now.[/b[ and for the draft i hope that they get Roy but that will not happen so i am going for one of the two brewers.
The 76ers beating the Nets might do just that.
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