Deng is slated to be ready for training camp. Derrick may be playing in January - maybe not full speed for the whole season, but 80% Derrick Rose is still an All-Star. Rip Hamilton is healthy (at least until he starts playing basketball again) and we have a nice young PG who will likely have a good veteran backup. With or without Asik doesn't matter a great deal to me (other than wasted money, I'm speaking in basketball terms) I do not believe his presence is a big factor in our W-L record unless there is a long term injury to Joakim. Even then, I'm not really sure depending on who we can bring in at vet's minimum.

Anyways, this team will make the playoffs and may even be an upper echelon seed.

Deng is slated to be training camp ready but he's going to be playing through that wrist injury, making him less effective. Rose will be less effective, limited in minutes, out of basketball shape, and really January would be a minor miracle. The Bulls will have less in the lane with Asik gone.

Boozer is another year older and is coming off his first injury free season in almost forever. SImilarly, we may never see Noah that healthy again.

If I'm pessimistic...this team has a whole lot of downside. It would be tough for them to wind up out of the playoffs if Deng plays 1/2 a season and Boozer and Noah are around, they're still good enough for that...but i can't look at this team without a 100% rose and think theyr'e competitive.

The problem with that is you can't assume anything with Derrick. January is the earliest projection, and if his minutes have to be limited or he can't get to the rack like he used to, that's a huge problem for the Bulls. You can't really assume health for Rip, Deng, Boozer or Noah either since they've all had injury issues at one point or another.

If they can snag the 6-seed, I'd say you'd have to be pretty impressed and happy.

Basically my case is this: it's a decent, playoff level team minus Rose. Sure they could have injuries, but you'll be hard pressed to find a team that doesn't have key players with a history of injuries. If everyone is hurt, yes that may be the end of our ability to compete.

Not counting on Rose to come back, but you have to be ready for it because it may indeed happen. He may be a 20ppg player by playoff time. He may not, but he'll still be an above average point guard in all likelihood. We like to s*** on these other players we're familiar with, but our 3-4-5 are all pretty good (whether they are worth the money is a discussion for another thread) and a timely revival from Rip makes the lineup pretty potent.

You have to make a decision though. You have to either decide "Yes, I'm goign to hold onto this team and spend the luxury tax dollars because Rose will be back" or "I am not going into the luxury tax this year, I'm not going to spend the full MLE, and I'm going to let pieces like Asik walk, letting the team get worse to save money."

There's no in-between. If Rose comes back and by playoff time is 95% of where he was pre-injury....but you've subtracted Asik and Watson and added only a guy like Hinrich to cover Rose's offtime...that's not likely to get us past the Heat.

I don't think losing Asik and Watson has a drastic effect on our ability to compete.

It's not necessarily killer...but tell me this...what would the Bulls have next year that could possibly get better? About the only guys on the list that could improve are Hamilton, Butler, and Teague. There's not big upside to any of them, and there' significant downside if anyone else gets hurt.

And then what happens next offseason? The same setup...except now the entire remainder of the bench is free agents...including Gibson, who ought to out-earn Asik and who will be even tougher to keep.

If Derrick hadn't gotten hurt, there's good reason to think next year might have been our last legit title shot with this roster. Now without a 100% Rose though...the whole bench is lost and there's little in line to recover from it.

I agree that the Bulls have to be ready to re-tool a bit with what could be a tough year. I still feel the Bulls are over/under 45 wins next year, which should be good enough for the 6 seed. I don't beleive that means next year is a lost cause, but agree it isn't worth going over the luxury tax for, either. Epsecially if it costs us years down the line when Rose will still be in his prime should he fully recover.

I hate seeing Asik walk for nothing, but I don't mind so much on Watson.

Could improve? Deng will certainly improve the moment he is healthy. Boozer had basically a career worst year and stands to gain production when there are more touches to go around. Apparently Noah is seeing someone to work on his post game? I won't hold my breath for that. It's reasonable to think that Taj will take a step forward as well.

As I said previously, like most teams we're vulnerable to injuries, especially since we're starting the season already down at least 1 starter. I can't really plan for that to happen though.

If the Bulls just stand pat, let Asik walk, and go into the year after, here's the roster:

PG: Rose, Teague
SG: Hamilton has an option, otherwise, none currently under contract.
C: Noah
SF: Deng, Butler
PF: Boozer

Even if you don't pick up Hamilton's option and don't sign anyone for the MLE this offseason, that's still sitting at close to $60 million...and that winds up with allowing Gibson to walk. If you keep Gibson, based on Asik's deal, that's maybe $8 million right there. So that's the Bulls roster, with enough room to add 1 MLE player and maybe stay under the luxury tax.

That looks a lot worse than what the Bulls ran out there this year. Especially with Boozer a year older, and no obvious shooting guard.

Only thing the Bulls would have to add to that would be a draft pick near #20. It's just a mess.

Why do you think Boozer will return?

Why would you Amnesty him if it only puts you $4 million below the cap line?

IF the Bulls amnesty Boozer at the end of this season (they really really really should), re-sign Taj and don't exercise the option on Rip.......the Bulls should be fine.

It would still be well worth it and that number would be closer to 9 Mil if they didn't exercise Rip.

Then they're still sitting there at $55 million or so with no shooting guard on the roster.