09/10 NBA Predictions Options

[ZoomSlowik]

I know it's a little early, but the off-season is winding down and there's nothing else to talk about before football starts anyways.

What teams do you think are going to be legit threats? Who are your sleepers? Who is going to underachieve? What players are due for a breakout?

[ZoomSlowik]

I'll throw my thoughts on the standings in here too. I'll try to add tiers because some gaps will be a lot bigger than others.

East

1) Celtics- I really think they have the best lineup if KG is healthy. Their big 3 are getting a bit old, but Rondo and Perkins are very solid younger players that can produce big if someone misses some time. Also, Perkins is one of the few guys in the league that can slow down Dwight 1-on-1, so IMO they have an edge in that matchup if KG is even 80%.

2) Magic- Carter has more talent than Turkoglu and they improved their depth quite a bit. The Lewis suspension probably hurts their chances of getting the one seed, but it won't really matter in the long run. My biggest question with them is how close will Jameer Nelson get to last year's performance? He was having a great year before he got hurt.

3) Cavaliers- On paper they don't look terribly impressive, but Lebron has a bigger positive impact on their record than any player in the league. I hate predicting their finish because where they finish depends almost entirely on how dominant Lebron is in my book. They're probably a mid-lottery team without him.

----major drop-off-----

4) Hawks- They're a weird team. I really like a lot of their guys, but they don't have that one transcendent player. Every player on their roster is about one spot higher on the scouting report than they should be on a true contender. I think their final record will depend on how good Al Horford is. If he keeps putting up about 11-9 then they're going to finish with about 45 wins, if he can take the next step and start averaging 16-18 points that'd be a huge boost for them. Whether Jamal Crawford hurts or helps them is another issue.

----another smaller drop-off----

5) Raptors- This is where things start to get murky. Unless absolutely everything goes right I have a hard time seeing anyone else in this conference reach the high-40's in wins, they all have some pretty significant flaws.

Offensively, the Raptors will be impressive. Bosh gives them a balanced #1 option and Bargnani, Turkoglu and Calderon can all hit from outside. The defense is another story though, all of those guys are average at best on that end. Strong interior teams that can push them around will have field days against them. They'll play a lot of games in the triple digits and probably finish a bit over .500.

6) Heat- If anything happens to Wade, drop them near the bottom. The rest of this roster is pretty awful. I think Beasley will have a breakout year if he gets the minutes, and I kind of like Chalmers and Haslem as role players. However, nothing works for them if Wade isn't dominant.

7) Bulls- Between Rose's talent and their overall depth, I'm fairly confident that they'll make the playoffs. They really need Deng and/or Thomas to perform to help compensate for the loss of Gordon though. If Deng keeps getting hurt and/or Thomas continues to be inconsistent, they can definitely slide down the standings.

---drop-off, teams fighting for the last playoff spot or two---

8) Philadelphia- Losing Miller hurts, they don't have a good option at point guard. However, Iguodala and Young are talented wing players and they have some talent up front. A healthy Brand would be a big boost, but if he plays like last year they're in trouble. Dalembert needs to get better, though they might just be better off playing my guy Marresse Speights.

9) Washington- On paper they're pretty strong, but they were awful last year and could definitely suffer from chemistry and defensive issues. They have a lot of low percentage chuckers and no one that's a distributor or an enforcer inside. Still, that might be enough to eek out a playoff spot as they have the potential to score in bunches when their shots are falling.

10) Detroit- I've made it known that I'm not really a fan of this roster. They have several guys that can score but Stuckey is still developing at the point. Their interior defense and rebounding could also be a significant issue. Like a few other teams, they'll also rely very heavily on the jumper, hurting their consistency.

---Drop-off to random collections of junk that won't really matter in the long run---

11) Indiana- Between Granger and a potentially healthy Dunleavy, they should score enough points to steal some wins. However, their frontcourt is full of average or worse players and TJ Ford looks better on paper than he is at this point.

12) New Jersey- Devin Harris and Raul Lopez should prevent them from being totally awful. I also like Courtney Lee as a breakout candidate. They're woefully short on depth and scoring options besides those players though.

13) Milwaukee- If Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are relatively healthy and Ramon Sessions is retained, I think they can be somewhat respectable. If not, they'll end up in the high lottery.

14) Charlotte- They're very short on scoring. Gerald Wallace is pretty solid when healthy, but they'll struggle to reach the high 90's on a consistent basis.

15) New York- There are very few redeeming qualities on this roster. Basically the only guy I like at all is David Lee, and he hasn't signed yet. They'll need some significant help from D'Antoni ball to be even remotely successful.

[eddog2]

1. Magic - VC, Anderson, Barnes, Bass. The Magic have youth and a great blend of talent on their team. I think they stay even-keeled and they build on their great season last year.

2. Celtics - Could very well be the best team but I think that the age of the team will cause them to lose some close games. The backup PG spot is still an issue. With the team unsure if Rondo is the long-term answer there could be a rocky relationship that develops during the season.

3. Raptors - Turk, Jack, Rasho, DeRozan, Belinelli plus an improving Bargnani. I'd have to say that the Raptors have had the best overall offseason of any team in the league. They've addressed key areas of concern. They are a more athletic team and will be much better from the arc.

4. Wizards - Unlike Zoom I think this is the year the Wizards rise back to contention. I think Arenas will stay healhty and the additions of Mike Miller & Foye will be huge. Couple that with an improving JaVale McGee, Young, Haywood & Blatche and the Wizards are ready for a complete turnaround. What they should do is sign Raymond Felton. If they do that they are a lock for a top 5 seed even if Arenas goes down b/c Felton is an unselfish PG and Young/Miller/Butler/Jamison is enough offensive firepower for him to work with.

5. Cavs - I think Lebron and the Cavs did improve with Shaq but I don't think they were the true #1 team last year and their performance in the playoffs proved that. They'll be better but the top 4 are that much better when you consider who they added (assuming Arenas comes back healthy). And if the Turk move pays off I think the Raptors will edge the Cavs

6. Bulls - I rate them this high b/c they are my team and I'm always more optimistic than I should be. They are losing Gordon but I'm hoping that they'll show a defensive toughness that has been lacking since Skiles left town. If they don't, it could the the Bucks/Pacers/or Sixers and not the Bulls that make the playoffs.

7. Miami - Unless they add Iverson I think they'll be in the 6 or 7 spot or out of the playoffs altogether playing for a high lottery pick. Wade might decide to give up on the team and management for not adding any talent.

8. Atlanta - I think they take a mighty fall this year after Williams and Johnson likely get contract extensions. Will Crawford help or hinder? They're one injury away from having the Sixers/Bucks/Pacers/Bobcats pass them.

I'll fill in the West when I get more time but basically it goes

1. L.A.
2. San Antonio (they potentially could be #1 if they stay healthy and if Ron Ron goes back to being the Ron of old in L.A.)
3. Dallas
4. New Orleans
5. Portland
6. Denver
7. Utah
8. Oklahoma City/Clippers/Golden State


Breakout Candidates - Anthony Randolph, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Michael Beasley, Mike Conley, Thaddeus Young, Bargnani, Felton (if he ends up on a new team)

[ZoomSlowik]

4. Wizards - Unlike Zoom I think this is the year the Wizards rise back to contention. I think Arenas will stay healhty and the additions of Mike Miller & Foye will be huge. Couple that with an improving JaVale McGee, Young, Haywood & Blatche and the Wizards are ready for a complete turnaround. What they should do is sign Raymond Felton. If they do that they are a lock for a top 5 seed even if Arenas goes down b/c Felton is an unselfish PG and Young/Miller/Butler/Jamison is enough offensive firepower for him to work with.

I just don't see how they got 25-30 games better, that's what it'd take to finish up there. 10-15 I can see, maybe even 20, but more than that is pushing it.

Did they improve their defense or size? Did they reduce their reliance on outside shooting? Did they add someone that'll actually pass the ball and get it to guys in the right spot at the right time? Absolutely not. Even when Arenas was healthy, they were a low-40 win team, and I don't see them being any better than that now even if things go right. Foye and Miller are both bench players that are basically useless when they aren't making shots. They've got a lot of guys that shoot jumpers and don't do a whole lot else.

I guess McGee and Blatche have some upside inside, but Blatche is very Tyrus-like with his basketball IQ and inconsistent effort and even if McGee doubles his numbers he's only okay.

I kind of doubt Arenas has the same impact he did before the surgeries, he was quite bad when he made his brief appearances . Even when he was healthy, he had serious drawbacks because of his defense and chucker tendencies. I think there's a better than average chance that he hurts more than he helps.

I like Butler and Jamison, but they really need someone that can drive at will at the point and/or a center that can defend and score inside at least a little. Without either of those players, I have a very hard time seeing them finish ahead of some of those teams, especially The Lebrons.

[eddog2]

I just don't see how they got 25-30 games better, that's what it'd take to finish up there. 10-15 I can see, maybe even 20, but more than that is pushing it.

Did they improve their defense or size? Did they reduce their reliance on outside shooting? Did they add someone that'll actually pass the ball and get it to guys in the right spot at the right time? Absolutely not. Even when Arenas was healthy, they were a low-40 win team, and I don't see them being any better than that now even if things go right. Foye and Miller are both bench players that are basically useless when they aren't making shots. They've got a lot of guys that shoot jumpers and don't do a whole lot else.

I guess McGee and Blatche have some upside inside, but Blatche is very Tyrus-like with his basketball IQ and inconsistent effort and even if McGee doubles his numbers he's only okay.

I kind of doubt Arenas has the same impact he did before the surgeries, he was quite bad when he made his brief appearances . Even when he was healthy, he had serious drawbacks because of his defense and chucker tendencies. I think there's a better than average chance that he hurts more than he helps.

I like Butler and Jamison, but they really need someone that can drive at will at the point and/or a center that can defend and score inside at least a little. Without either of those players, I have a very hard time seeing them finish ahead of some of those teams, especially The Lebrons.

I'd argue they improved their defense and size by getting Haywood back healthy. Not to mention they will get to play a young exciting big that should be improved in JaVale McGee. McGee will be shot blocking force on D and his ability to run the floor and catch the lob will be displayed this year. I also think Blatche will have a bigger defensive role this year.

As for passing, all they need to do is have Gilbert average the same number of assists he did last year. 10.0apg. JK. I think 7 is a realistic number for his seeing has how there are even more offensive options on the team. I think that they really should try and add someone like Felton but I’m sure they don’t want to go any higher over the cap.

If Javale doubles his numbers he'll have a really good year. Especially considering he'll be the backup. 12ppg, 7.8rpg, 2.0bpg .8 spg as a backup would be eligible for 6th man of the year. Anyway, I highly doubt those improvements on offense especially with the firepower on the team but I expect his rebounding and block numbers to go up.

I think Arenas just needs to have an average year. Something like 20ppg & 6apg on 44%+ shootingwill get them back to where they need to be. I agree with you that his chucker tendencies could cost them significantly but I think they've added enough talent and they have youngsters on the rise that will help mask that. Their bench is real deep and includes players that could start for a lot of teams.

Will will start at SG? Or will the Wizards run a PG out there with Arenas? Could a Foye/Arenas backcourt work? I'm thinking Miller will be starting and if that's the case they'll have great shooters at the corners while Butler and Arenas do their work.

Butler/Arenas/Miller are all above average passers so I have no worries about the ball not moving in that offense. Also a combo of Arenas/Miller/Butler/Jamison will be tough to guard from downtown. They are going to be a high scoring bunch this year. Even if Arenas goes down for the year I think they are a playoff team. Mike Miller had a bad year last year so the only way for him to go is up. Look for him to get back up to 14ppg and 40% from the arc.

They helped their cause in that regard by adding Miller and Foye (Foye is Arenas light). They have a great starting lineup and a much improved bench. Their bench likely will include:

JaVale - breakout candidate defensively. There are very few if any bigs in the league with his length, quickness, and general overall shot blocking explosiveness. If he spent the off-season in the weight room he'll be a much improved force on defense with his 7'6" reach. I still think he'll struggle offensively at times but he should get more consistent minutes b/c of his improved defense.

Foye - Not a great passer but he is another strong scoring option off the bench

Young - Had a good year last year and will likely improve on that

Stevenson - He has taken an unexpected step back the last two seasons but there is still potential for him to be a productive player off the bench this year. I guess there is also an outside chance that he'll start but I doubt that.

Dominic McGuire - Decent defender off the bench

Mike James - Another shooter off the bench

Javaris Crittenton - Is this the year he puts it together? Or will he be a lost soul on the bench?

Oberto - I consider him a slight upgrade to Songaila.

Blatche - He absolutely dominated the summer league which is a promising sign. He's still young (turns 23 this month) and still has a ton of potential. But really all he needs to do is slightly improve on his numbers from last year and he'll be a nice PF off the bench. Anything more than that will be a bonus.


I agree with you that their biggest weakness is PG. But I think some combination of Arenas/Foye/James/Crittenton when combined with Butler and Miller's passing and Miller and Jamison's shooting should be enough to get them a mid to high seed in the East. With that said, I think it is in their best interest to try and get Sessions or Felton. I think they should be calling the Bobcats non-stop to work out a sign and trade for Felton. You have to figure the Bobcats would pull the trigger for Mike James/McGuire and a future pick. But maybe their hope is to trade Felton at the deadline.

I'm saying it now, if the Wizards get Felton before the season they will be a top 3 team in the East. That's how underrated Felton is. An unselfish great passing guard like Felton is exactly what the Wizards need. They'd then have one of the best starting lineups and probably the best bench in the East (at least on paper). Will it happen? Probably not. But if it does watch out.

Felton/Foye
Arenas/Stevenson
Butler/Miller
Jamison/Blatche
Haywood/JaVale