09/10 NBA Predictions Options

[ZoomSlowik]

I know it's a little early, but the off-season is winding down and there's nothing else to talk about before football starts anyways.

What teams do you think are going to be legit threats? Who are your sleepers? Who is going to underachieve? What players are due for a breakout?

[ZoomSlowik]

I seriously doubt they bench Villanueva given the contract that they just gave him. Wallace probably won't be useful for more than 5 minute bursts or so at his age, because of that he's probably a bench player.

Also, Wilcox is not better than anything the Bulls have. He is a pretty good finisher but has no post moves or shooting range at all, he only hit like 30% of his shots outside the immediate basket area and like 3/4 of his inside shots were assisted. They don't have anyone that you can definitively call even an average big man when you factor in all of their abilities. At least the Bulls are semi-competent inside between Noah, Thomas and Miller, especially on defense. That's more than you can say for Villanueva and Wilcox.

They have three decent to good wing players, that's the only real plus with their team. They ALL rely extremely heavily on their jumpshot. 85% of Hamilton's shots are jumpers, 80% of Gordon's shots are jumpers and Prince gets 50% of his shots on 2-point jumpers and only hits 36% of them (he's a better finisher than I thought but not amazing).

You win in the NBA because of your top-3 players, and Detroit's top three is Gordon/Hamilton/Prince. That's not getting you anywhere. At least the Bulls have Rose, the only guy that is a star-level player on either team. Hamilton and Prince aren't exactly light years better than Deng and Salmons either, while Thomas and Noah have considerably more upside than the Pistons' frontcourt.

It's not impossible for the Bulls to finish below Detroit or for the Pistons to make the playoffs, but the odds aren't in favor of it.

[eddog2]

I seriously doubt they bench Villanueva given the contract that they just gave him. Wallace probably won't be useful for more than 5 minute bursts or so at his age, because of that he's probably a bench player.

Also, Wilcox is not better than anything the Bulls have. He is a pretty good finisher but has no post moves or shooting range at all, he only hit like 30% of his shots outside the immediate basket area and like 3/4 of his inside shots were assisted. They don't have anyone that you can definitively call even an average big man when you factor in all of their abilities. At least the Bulls are semi-competent inside between Noah, Thomas and Miller, especially on defense. That's more than you can say for Villanueva and Wilcox.

They have three decent to good wing players, that's the only real plus with their team. They ALL rely extremely heavily on their jumpshot. 85% of Hamilton's shots are jumpers, 80% of Gordon's shots are jumpers and Prince gets 50% of his shots on 2-point jumpers and only hits 36% of them (he's a better finisher than I thought but not amazing).

You win in the NBA because of your top-3 players, and Detroit's top three is Gordon/Hamilton/Prince. That's not getting you anywhere. At least the Bulls have Rose, the only guy that is a star-level player on either team. Hamilton and Prince aren't exactly light years better than Deng and Salmons either, while Thomas and Noah have considerably more upside than the Pistons' frontcourt.

It's not impossible for the Bulls to finish below Detroit or for the Pistons to make the playoffs, but the odds aren't in favor of it.

Wilcox is a better finisher than anybody on our team. Sure his stats from last year don't indicate that but other than the occasional Tyrus dunk, Tyrus isn't nearly as coordinated down low. Wilcox occasionally does get the ball drop in and he can hit a soft hook shot every now and then. Sure he's never demanded the ball in the post but he's definately more capable of scoring with his back to the basket than Miller/Noah/or Tyrus. Noah shot a higher % but that's because almost of all his shots are uncontested. Event he ones he makes are real ugly.

You are correct when you say our guys are better defensively and that Rose is a major difference. That is true but I'm still not sold on him being as effective as the #1 option. I think him playing with BG created a lot of holes to penetrate that likely won't be there this season. Meanwhile, playing with BG should make Prince/Hamilton/& Charlie V. better. Prince is pretty effective in the post when he has a smaller defender. I think that having BG there will reduce the likelihood of a double team which will allow Prince to either hit the baby hook or find an open Rip who will be cutting like always.

Anyway, I think Hamilton/Prince/B.G. is a good problem to have. I don't think there is a coach in the league that wouldn't be interested in having that problem (if cap issues were not of concern). If Deng does not come back fully healthy, I'd argue that those 3 are better than our top 3. (Hamilton > Salmons, Prince >Deng, Rose > BG overall but not scoring). How is that not a good top 3? It's not Sheed/Hamilton/Billups that won the title or Hamilton/Prince/Billups but it's still very formidable.

On a side note, do you know that Prince has played in 492 straight games. That's pretty good. B.G. has only missed 12 games in 5 seasons while Hamilton has missed 39. Meanwhile Deng has missed 77 games in 5 years. That's the difference between our top 3 and theirs. Deng has missed 26 more games than their top 3 combined over the past 5 years.