09/10 NBA Predictions Options

[ZoomSlowik]

I know it's a little early, but the off-season is winding down and there's nothing else to talk about before football starts anyways.

What teams do you think are going to be legit threats? Who are your sleepers? Who is going to underachieve? What players are due for a breakout?

[ZoomSlowik]

I think you really overestimate Prince's abilities. He has talent and makes few mistakes, but he has never scored 15 points in a season despite regularly taking 12-13 shots a year. That's not a very good scoring rate. Even in a down year last season Deng was about as productive as Prince usually is, if he's healthy he has more upside as an offensive player and is nearly as effective defensively.

Salmons also had a hell of a year last season, he shot almost 48% from the floor and over 40% from the arc. I realize that was his career year by a good margin, but if he's even close to that he's better than Hamilton or Prince and a reasonable replacement for Gordon, especially since he's a solid defender.

Gordon is better than either of those wing players, but again, I think you overestimate how big of an impact he has on the rest of the team. If he really makes everyone around him better, then Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas must REALLY suck. He's not a guy that draws entire defenses to him, he's a guy that can usually be covered with one player and does most of his damage on long jumpers. It's not like Detroit has the drivers or post players to take advantage of guys having to stay with him outside.

I realize there are an awful lot of ifs with the Bulls, but even if Salmons regresses to a low double figures scorers, Deng plays 50 or 60 games again and Tyrus, Noah and Rose make zero progress Detroit still doesn't exactly blow them out of the water.

You could make a very strong case that the Bulls are better at every spot in the lineup except for shooting guard, that's why they have a much better chance of making the playoffs. Barring someone like Stuckey or Maxiell making a massive leap, they're a very average team. That's basically what the Bulls are, but there is are more reasons to expect the Bulls to be a bit better than that.

[eddog2]

I think you really overestimate Prince's abilities. He has talent and makes few mistakes, but he has never scored 15 points in a season despite regularly taking 12-13 shots a year. That's not a very good scoring rate. Even in a down year last season Deng was about as productive as Prince usually is, if he's healthy he has more upside as an offensive player and is nearly as effective defensively.

Salmons also had a hell of a year last season, he shot almost 48% from the floor and over 40% from the arc. I realize that was his career year by a good margin, but if he's even close to that he's better than Hamilton or Prince and a reasonable replacement for Gordon, especially since he's a solid defender.

Gordon is better than either of those wing players, but again, I think you overestimate how big of an impact he has on the rest of the team. If he really makes everyone around him better, then Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas must REALLY suck. He's not a guy that draws entire defenses to him, he's a guy that can usually be covered with one player and does most of his damage on long jumpers. It's not like Detroit has the drivers or post players to take advantage of guys having to stay with him outside.

I realize there are an awful lot of ifs with the Bulls, but even if Salmons regresses to a low double figures scorers, Deng plays 50 or 60 games again and Tyrus, Noah and Rose make zero progress Detroit still doesn't exactly blow them out of the water.

You could make a very strong case that the Bulls are better at every spot in the lineup except for shooting guard, that's why they have a much better chance of making the playoffs. Barring someone like Stuckey or Maxiell making a massive leap, they're a very average team. That's basically what the Bulls are, but there is are more reasons to expect the Bulls to be a bit better than that.

Let's not get carried away with the Salmons anointing. The guy had 1 very good year. That does not justify you saying he's better than Hamilton who is a three time all-star. Sure his numbers last year were good but let him do that without Gordon this year before we anoint him as being such as great player. As for Prince, he's a very good all around player. I never said he was a great scorer. I just said that with Gordon he'll be able to use his height more effectively b/c he probably won't get doubled when he posts up smaller defenders. Not sure if you have ever watched him play but he does a great job defensively and has a very nice hook shoot in the post (though he's as skinny as a rail). I believe he's an all-around better player than Deng (but Deng has more potential for improvement).

I'm not worried about the Pistons scoring. B.G./Hamilton/Prince/Charlie V. will provide a bulk of the scoring and Bynum/Stuckey/Wilcox can provide the rest. It might come down to defense this year for the Pistons but I am just making the point that I think they could be better than everyone expects. We'll just have to wait and see. And it's still not too late for RIP to be traded.