09/10 NBA Predictions Options

[ZoomSlowik]

I know it's a little early, but the off-season is winding down and there's nothing else to talk about before football starts anyways.

What teams do you think are going to be legit threats? Who are your sleepers? Who is going to underachieve? What players are due for a breakout?

[eddog2]

Back to the Wizards. Maybe this will help some of you jump on the bandwagon. Is Gilbert set to make a Wade "light" type comeback following two injury plagued seasons? If so, I think top 4 in the east is for sure a possiblity.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4394425

http://washingtontimes.com/weblogs/outlet/.../arenas-update/

[ZoomSlowik]

"There's no question, a player of his talent, when he's playing, he puts us from a team that's competing for the playoffs to a team that's an elite team in the playoffs. When you walk in the gym right now, you wouldn't think that he's hurt," Saunders said.

This quote right here is the big problem. The Wizards weren't a playoff team last year, in fact they weren't remotely close to the playoffs. Even if you say that Arenas makes them 15 games better, which is pretty generous considering Dwyane Wade "only" had 14.4 win shares last year, they'd have to make up another 7 wins just to get to .500, and another 5-10 to get homecourt in the first round. If he's even remotely off, they're still stuck in the 30's for wins.

[Balta1701-B]

This quote right here is the big problem. The Wizards weren't a playoff team last year, in fact they weren't remotely close to the playoffs. Even if you say that Arenas makes them 15 games better, which is pretty generous considering Dwyane Wade "only" had 14.4 win shares last year, they'd have to make up another 7 wins just to get to .500, and another 5-10 to get homecourt in the first round. If he's even remotely off, they're still stuck in the 30's for wins.

So that Miami team last year without Wade was a 36-46 team and was about as good as the Pacers? I'm not sure I buy that.

[ZoomSlowik]

So that Miami team last year without Wade was a 36-46 team and was about as good as the Pacers? I'm not sure I buy that.

As I kind of implied in that post, in the NBA one win share= 1 win (at least using this system). So 43-14=29 which is maybe a bit high but still gets across the general point that Wade single handedly takes them from quite bad to the #5 seed.

[eddog2]

As I kind of implied in that post, in the NBA one win share= 1 win (at least using this system). So 43-14=29 which is maybe a bit high but still gets across the general point that Wade single handedly takes them from quite bad to the #5 seed.

If Wade can single handedly take the worst team in the league to the 5th seed in one season I have no doubt that a fully healthy Arenas when combined with off-season acquisitions of Miller & Foye and a roster with two all-star caliber players (Butler & Jamison) should be able to do at least that much. I'm thinking 5th is about as low as they finish. Washington wasn't the worst team last year. They just gave up toward the 2nd half of the year (and basically all year) b/c they knew Arenas wasn't coming back. He's the leader of their team and it was a big blow mentally once he went down.

So they played for a high draft pick. When the ping pong balls didn't go their way, they did the right thing and traded the pick for talent that would make them a better team. Would Johnny Flynn have been better? Possibly. But by adding Mike Miller (a proven shooter) and Randy Foye (a very capable scorer off the bench) the Wizards decided they would do everything in their power to win now. I am confident that their decision will pay off next year in the form of a high seed and possible deep playoff run.

[ZoomSlowik]

If Wade can single handedly take the worst team in the league to the 5th seed in one season I have no doubt that a fully healthy Arenas when combined with off-season acquisitions of Miller & Foye and a roster with two all-star caliber players (Butler & Jamison) should be able to do at least that much. I'm thinking 5th is about as low as they finish. Washington wasn't the worst team last year. They just gave up toward the 2nd half of the year (and basically all year) b/c they knew Arenas wasn't coming back. He's the leader of their team and it was a big blow mentally once he went down.

So they played for a high draft pick. When the ping pong balls didn't go their way, they did the right thing and traded the pick for talent that would make them a better team. Would Johnny Flynn have been better? Possibly. But by adding Mike Miller (a proven shooter) and Randy Foye (a very capable scorer off the bench) the Wizards decided they would do everything in their power to win now. I am confident that their decision will pay off next year in the form of a high seed and possible deep playoff run.

There are several problems with that:

-Dwayne Wade is a better player than Arenas. That even includes the assumption that he gets back to his 28 PPG peak, if he doesn't the gap between the two is quite a bit bigger.

-Even with a healthy Arenas and those two fringe-type All-Stars, Washington hasn't won more than 43 games with that core.

-You keep touting the Miller and Foye acquisitions like that's 10 wins added. Both are role players that made little impact in Minnesota and will likely see reduced minutes in Washington. That will also mean reduced minutes for Nick Young and DeShawn Stevenson thanks to the cluster-fish they have on the perimeter.

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Foye had either no impact or a negative impact, he's used to firing at will on an awful team and does basically nothing but score. How useful is that on a team that already has Jamison, Butler and possibly a healthy Arenas?

-They absolutely were the worst team in the east last year and they played like it. Jamison and Butler weren't significantly worse than normal and all of these role players that are supposed to give them great depth this year generally sucked. Darius Songalia was third on the team with 2.4 win shares, that's pathetic.

Butler and Jamison are solid, but not the kind of players that can carry a team. Given the defensive deficiencies of the team they need Arenas to be their best player by a decent margin to be even remotely successful, and that's still not a given.

There's a chance that they have a good season, but they are FAR from a lock to make the leap from worst team in the east to even the playoffs, much less a top-5 seed. They didn't exactly add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and get Paul Pierce back from injury like the Celtics did.

If we are making the assumption that Arenas is 100% healthy I'd probably bump them up to #7, but for now there's still a distinct possibility that he pull an Elton Brand and sucks in brief returns like he did the last two years. I have a hard time seeing them be a whole lot better than that.

[eddog2]

There are several problems with that:

-Dwayne Wade is a better player than Arenas. That even includes the assumption that he gets back to his 28 PPG peak, if he doesn't the gap between the two is quite a bit bigger.

-Even with a healthy Arenas and those two fringe-type All-Stars, Washington hasn't won more than 43 games with that core.

-You keep touting the Miller and Foye acquisitions like that's 10 wins added. Both are role players that made little impact in Minnesota and will likely see reduced minutes in Washington. That will also mean reduced minutes for Nick Young and DeShawn Stevenson thanks to the cluster-fish they have on the perimeter.

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Foye had either no impact or a negative impact, he's used to firing at will on an awful team and does basically nothing but score. How useful is that on a team that already has Jamison, Butler and possibly a healthy Arenas?

-They absolutely were the worst team in the east last year and they played like it. Jamison and Butler weren't significantly worse than normal and all of these role players that are supposed to give them great depth this year generally sucked. Darius Songalia was third on the team with 2.4 win shares, that's pathetic.

Butler and Jamison are solid, but not the kind of players that can carry a team. Given the defensive deficiencies of the team they need Arenas to be their best player by a decent margin to be even remotely successful, and that's still not a given.

There's a chance that they have a good season, but they are FAR from a lock to make the leap from worst team in the east to even the playoffs, much less a top-5 seed. They didn't exactly add Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and get Paul Pierce back from injury like the Celtics did.

If we are making the assumption that Arenas is 100% healthy I'd probably bump them up to #7, but for now there's still a distinct possibility that he pull an Elton Brand and sucks in brief returns like he did the last two years. I have a hard time seeing them be a whole lot better than that.

I never said Arenas was going to be as good as Wade. That's why I called him Wade "light". Anyway, if he comes back fully healthy he has much more to work with than Wade had in Miami. Haywood/McGee with Jamison at PF is much better than JO/Haslem. They have youth and an abundance of scoring. And adding Mike Miller (who you call a fringe player) to improve their outside shooting was a great addition. Their bench this year will be much better at scoring the ball.

As for Foye I somewhat agree with you. But I think he's underrated. Him being the 4th, 5th, or 6th option on offense should open him up for easy looks. Same for Miller. When you start getting better looks you typically shoot better from the field. I also think Foye could excel in the 2nd unit in a 6th man role.

However, if the Wizards are smart they'll try and pull a sign and trade for Felton and move one of their SG's. I think moving Young would be the best move. All he does is score like you said. That would allow Gilbert to move to the SG spot and then the 2nd unit would be Foye/Stevenson/Miller/Blatche/McGee. That's a big improvement over what they had last year. Foye & Miller essentially are both better than any scorers they had off the bench last year.

Anyway, what the Wizards did by getting Miller & Foye is increase their options and the talent on their team. Even without any other trades and if Gilbert stayed hurt they'd be a better team by getting both of them and Haywood back. You seem to be ignoring the fact that Haywood was their best big man and he missed most of the year. Add in a healhty Arenas and that will produce W's. Their deep team will allow them to make moves at the deadline to obtain what they feel they are lacking but even with no moves they will be night and day from last year.

Anyway, you know I love going back and forth on issues with you. We are not going to agree on this so lets agree to disagree and when the Wizards finish higher than 7th you can tell me how right I was.